Being forced into a runoff against Jesus “Chuy” Garcia after outspending Garcia by a nearly 12-to-1 margin is a huge national embarrassment for Mayor Rahm Emanuel.
It means an exhausting six-week campaign that’s likely to force the nation’s best-known big city mayor to go back to his deep-pockets donors for another $5 million.
It also means that Garcia, who raised just $1.3 million to Emanuel’s $15 million, is likely to have an easier time matching the mayor’s Round 2 spending or at least coming close.
ANALYSIS
But will it be more than a bump in the road that simply humbles Emanuel? Or does Garcia have a legitimate chance to pull off a stunning upset and become the next mayor of Chicago?
“It’s still Rahm’s to lose. But Chuy would at least have an opportunity to win,” said Delmarie Cobb, a veteran Democratic political consultant who is not involved in the mayor’s race.
“People from all over the country will pour money into the race. When the incumbent is weakened and forced into a runoff, it becomes a completely different race and makes believers out of disbelievers.”
Twenty-four times since 2003, incumbent aldermen have been forced into run-offs. Twelve times, the incumbent lost. Never before since Chicago made the switch to non-partisan elections in 1999 has there been a citywide run-off.
INTERACTIVE MAP: See vote totals by precinct
Garcia’s campaign manager Andrew Sharp is relishing the opportunity to make history.
“Emanuel’s challenge is much more daunting than ours. He has to go back to voters who affirmatively took an action to remove him from office and say, `I really deserve another chance,’” Sharp said.
“If the president of the United States and all of your Hollywood and hedge fund money can’t get you over 50 percent, how are you gonna do that in a runoff when the majority of the city has already voted against you? That’s what we look at as our fundamental strategic advantage.”
Sharp argued that the electorate fundamentally changes in a run-off because there are “a lot more people interested in the playoffs than there are in the regular season.” That means turnout should be substantially higher.
And in a one-on-one race, Garcia will no longer have trouble breaking through the noise generated by a field of five. Sharp is hoping there will be a “whole new group” of voters who will look at Garcia for the first time and like what they hear.
“This race is going to spark a fair amount of national attention. There’s a segment of the Democratic Party that views this as a fundamental fight over economic fairness,” Sharp said.
“The biggest obstacle we’ve had to raising money was the expectation we’re not gonna win. The day that everybody wakes up and says, ‘Oh, my gosh. This humble county commissioner from the Southwest Side got the mayor of Chicago, a friend of the president of the United States, into a run-off,’ the world changes. We’ll be able to raise the $4 million to $5 million it will take to run a fully funded, modern campaign.”
In a head-to-head match-up against Garcia, Emanuel’s internal polling has shown the mayor leading by 20 percentage points. That’s likely to tighten now that anti-Emanuel forces smell blood in the water.
But not enough to close the gap, according to a mayoral adviser, who asked to remain anonymous.
“I don’t think there’s a person on earth who would prefer to be in Garcia’s position than ours. The idea that half the city is against him or that there’s blood in the water is false,” the Emanuel strategist said.
“The mayor has a very strong lead. There’s no reason to think that any of those votes will leave him. In a run-off, the mayor has a real opportunity to get 60 percent of the vote.”
The Emanuel adviser also downplayed the national embarrassment of a run-off.
“When you make tough decisions and take on the problems we’ve taken on, it’s a difficult thing for people to take. No one likes to take their medicine. What would be stranger is for people to enjoy that,” the mayoral confidante said.
David Axelrod, Emanuel’s friend of 30 years, worked together with the mayor in the Obama White House. Axelrod argued that, unlike Round 1, the run-off will not simply be a “referendum on Rahm.”
“People will look at both candidates and say, `Who’s big enough for the job.’ They understand that the challenges are so big and complex, it requires larger-than-life candidates. That’s why the people who’ve thrived in this job are the Harold Washingtons, the Rich Daleys and the Rahm Emanuels,” Axelrod said.
“If someone comes through a run-off, they’ll be scrutinized in a way that they haven’t been much more closely as a potential mayor.”
Not surprisingly, vanquished mayoral challengers appear to be falling in line behind Garcia.
Millionaire businessman Willie Wilson said Monday he would “wholeheartedly” endorse Garcia in a one-on-one race against Emanuel because, “I don’t believe in the mayor’s ideas.” Ald. Bob Fioretti (2nd) added, “If there is a run-off, I will support whoever the challenger is. We need a change. Chicago is headed in the wrong direction under this mayor.”
The only hesitation came from perennial candidate William “Dock” Walls, who complained that Garcia was “extremely light on what he would do to move the city forward” and he needs to hear more details.
To overcome Emanuel’s huge lead, Cobb said Garcia must find a way to resurrect the Black/Hispanic/progressive-white coalition that his political mentor, Harold Washington, rode to victory in 1983 and 1987.
That means introducing himself to a whole new generation of African-American voters who have no idea that Garcia was a close ally of Washington.
“He now has to tell his story. That means his long relationship with the African-American community, why Karen Lewis supported him. Why he’s Toni Preckwinkle’s floor leader,” Cobb said.
“He didn’t have opportunity to introduce himself before because he didn’t have the money. He was running a marathon, started at mile 13 and had to just go. Now, he gets a chance to drag out the old pictures of him and Harold Washington and all of the other progressives.
“When you see that one photo of a young Chuy Garcia standing there with Harold Washington and Ted Kennedy, it speaks volumes.”