What Springfield must do to reach education deal

Anger. Disappointment. Distrust.

Those are some of the words Democratic and Republican lawmakers used to describe the Illinois state budget stalemate that, if not solved in a few weeks, could threaten the opening of schools this fall.

Insiders believe a deal to save schools must be struck by mid-July — and many think it will happen after Independence Day and before the Republican National Convention begins on July 18.

State law requires that the Chicago Public Schools’ budget be done no later than the end of August. Last year, principals received their budgets on July 13, leaving just a month to figure our their school’s finances before going before Local School Councils, public hearings and the Chicago Board of Education.

“Without a state education budget, every school district in Illinois is in uncharted territory,” CPS spokeswoman Emily Bittner said Friday. “Every week that goes by without a state education budget puts our schools — and schools in every corner of the state — into deeper uncertainty.”

Despite talks of a temporary state budget to get through the election, or even January, any stopgap measure must ensure that schools get a full-year plan.

There are several scenarios that could result in an education deal, each with its own difficulties. The Chicago Sun-Times spoke with lawmakers, statehouse insiders, lobbyists and experts about what might get Illinois out of the budget jam, at least for the rest of the year.

Scenario 1

The option most discussed just days after the Illinois General Assembly failed to pass a budget, or a school funding bill, is a resurrected version of Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan’s massive appropriations bill, which featured a $7 billion deficit and no revenue.

That’s being called the only budget bill in town — and a “long-game” plan — because it would only require a vote, albeit a very difficult vote, in the Senate. Under Senate rules, Illinois Senate President John Cullerton could call it for a vote at any time. But it’s also a spending plan that Gov. Bruce Rauner has vowed repeatedly to veto in its entirety.

The spending plan crafted by Madigan — with Cullerton soon after taking credit for its education portion — includes $700 million more for schools, considered an “equity grant” in the memo, which would help CPS and other high-poverty school districts.

It would fund about 10 percent of state expenses not currently covered by court order or consent decrees. It also would mean a $7 billion deficit, prompting the governor’s office to deem it the “phoniest phony budget.”

It’s a plan just to keep things moving, without coming up with the revenue to deal with that spending. And Rauner can choose to line-item veto everything except for the education funding.

Even if this scenario happens, Cullerton will have to come up with 36 votes. Less than an hour before the budget deadline, just 17 senators voted for the bill, with 10 voting “present.”

The biggest battle if the bill passes — even with compromises — would be getting it signed by Rauner. The governor has said he won’t support a school-funding plan that pits one school district after another. The massive bill was crafted to include education so that Rauner could be seen on record as voting against education spending.

Scenario 2

An hour before the budget deadline, Cullerton said he was confident he could get a temporary budget — one that could fund the state until January — done in a week.

“I hope to have a budget. Think about this. A real budget, signed by the governor — an agreement — within a week. That’s more positive than we’ve been up until now,” Cullerton said.

On May 27, he left a legislative leaders meeting with Rauner and told reporters he’d suggested a “short-term compromise,” saying revenue with reforms was what’s needed for a balanced budget.

But “if we run out of time, we have no backup plan to keep our state operating,” he said.

Cullerton’s plan would keep schools, universities and human services providers operating while working groups continue to negotiate on a broader solution.

Illinois Senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno labeled that a way for Democrats to “slow-walk” the process “to create a crisis.”

But Tuesday Rauner produced his own stopgap measure to fund the state through the end of the year — and challenged Democrats to immediately pass it.

“Don’t wait, don’t hold our schools hostage,” he said. “Don’t hold our government operations hostage. Don’t hold the people of Illinois hostage.”

Working groups plan to meet this coming week to discuss a stopgap compromise. Many in those groups are hopeful a six-month plan can be ironed out, with Cullerton pushing for nothing of Rauner’s “turnaround agenda” to be included.

This plan is dependent on how much the working groups, the leaders and Rauner can compromise on. It would put aside some differences until after the November election and ensure that schools open on time.

An aide said Cullerton takes “seriously” Rauner’s offer of a stopgap budget.

Kent Redfield, a political science emeritus professor at the University of Illinois at Springfield, calls the compromise a way for both parties to claim a win during a contentious election year.

“I think that’s how everybody can go home and claim victory and then fight it out after the election,” Redfield said. “I think you obviously have to pair that with an education bill.”

Scenario 3

Rauner launched a two-day media tour across Illinois on June 1, where he touted the importance of passing both his stopgap measure and a separate standalone education bill to make sure schools stay home. Insiders have called a vote on those Republican bills “a long, long shot” because of the time it will take to get the bills to a vote. The Rauner administrations and Republicans leaders have disputed this claim, saying Democrats always find ways to accelerate their own bills.

The governor told downstate audiences that city Democrats are forcing a Chicago bailout and taking tax dollars from “hard-working” people throughout the state. On that tour, Rauner urged Democrats to stand up against their leaders and pass two bills sponsored by Republicans, one a funded stopgap measure to fund government operations through November, and another to ensure schools open on time and provide an additional $105 million to school districts that get less under the state’s current funding formula.

But if it’s Republican sponsorship that Rauner needs and those bills don’t make it to a vote, the House does have HB 4232, an appropriations bill sponsored by Republicans and Democrats. The use of that bill as bipartisan deal could provide a larger menu of options to get an interim budget through.

Scenario 4

Lawmakers could come together and produce a new stand-alone education bill to make sure schools open on time, with no ties to an interim budget.

One legislator said it doesn’t matter who helps produce the bill — the Rauner administration, the Democrats or Republicans.

“Anything we do is going to be negotiated,” he said.

Scenario 5

Lawmakers could set aside the ill will over the disastrous ending of the session and put together a comprehensive one-year budget — which keeps spending and revenues in balance — and find a way fund education. A prominent member of the budgeteer working group said there’s an “opening” for a comprehensive budget to be put together based on private discussions in the working groups.

“I am of the belief that the working groups have the best opportunity to get a comprehensive solution, and it’ll make everyone take a stand,” the lawmaker said.

But that optimistic view of the working groups isn’t shared by everyone. One member said there’s a deep sense of distrust among members who appear to have made progress privately but then don’t see support on the House and Senate floor. He said members work hard to keep political rhetoric out of the meetings and called those meetings “well-spirited” but said floor actions lead to the lack of trust.

“Trust is a huge problem, and it comes from the top,” he said. “It’s hard to come to a deal if you can’t trust what’s happening in other places. You can’t trust their word. That’s the problem.”