Opinion: Support for Trump will fade when people feel the pinch

A president’s power is limited not just by the Constitution, laws and bureaucrats who don’t agree with his policies. It is limited as well by by public opposition, public opinion and other politicians. For President Donald Trump, that process began with protests at his inauguration and the broader Women’s March on his first day in office.

In the 100 days, Donald Trump will mostly get his way. He controls the executive branch and Congress, and he will appoint swing votes on the Supreme Court. He will be able to enact many of the changes on his agenda.

But because Trump lost the popular vote in November, he does not have a mandate or blank check to do whatever he wants. There will be resistance.

In the 1980s, I helped lead the Illinois Coalition Against Reagan Economics, ICARE, in opposition to a much more popular president, Ronald Reagan. Having watched that process up close, I learned the following lessons.

When Reagan began to cut social services and overfund the Defense Department, even a Congress controlled by Democrats went along with him in his beginning days. They believed his election gave him a mandate from the American people to enact his conservative agenda. Within a few months, social services has been cut and not-for-profit groups lost even their VISTA workers. In reaction, political groups and usually apolitical organizations banded together to form ICARE and similar coalitions around the country.

We built up local protests and demonstrations just like last weekend’s Women’s March, though we never achieved the numbers of that protest. But thousands of Chicagoans did join in peacefully protesting against Reagan’s policies, which drew media coverage and public attention.

In 1983, Mayor Harold Washington issued reports that federal budgets under Reagan included proposed cuts of $440 million to local governments, public schools, public transportation and city services. These cuts would have real negative effects.

As opposition grew, we met with congressmen and demanded that they block these harmful cuts. Because their jobs were on the line, enough congressmen acted and the worst of the budget cuts were blocked in future Reagan years.

The ICARE experience provides a game plan for the Trump resistance movement. Create broad coalitions. Use protest demonstrations to show your strength in numbers. Raise up new political spokesmen and support elected officials who speak out in opposition to particular Trump policies. Meet with congressmen in their home offices — especially with vulnerable Republican congressmen in the suburbs. Change public opinion so as to defeat Pro-Trump congressmen in 2018.

Public opinion will begin to shift when voters begin to feel the effects of Trump policies enacted in the first 100 days. Americans will rethink their views on Trump when they must pay higher taxes to build the wall on the Mexican border, when they lose their health care, when they lose jobs and pay more for products because of trade wars. And Trump himself will lose if he runs again in 2020.

Many voters will not oppose President Trump and his allies until the shoes on their own feet pinch. Others will change their mind when they see their neighbor’s misery.

Effective resistance does not happen on its own. It is built up step by step, as we did in the 1980s.

Dick Simpson is a professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Illinois at Chicago. He is also a former Chicago alderman.

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