First-and-10: Even after 3-13, continuity a key for Bears rebuild

There have been difficult times in recent Bears history, but few as awkward as the Bears find themselves facing today.

The Bears have made the playoffs just four times in the last 22 seasons — only once since reaching the Super Bowl after the 2006 season and not at all in the last six. At 3-13, they’re coming off the worst season since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978. And yet, their best chance for success is continuity.

This is not the time to be howling for change. The Bears were a bad team in 2016, but they weren’t off-the-rails bad. There were no overt signs of dysfunction. There were just enough signs of progress — and the potential for progress — to allow John Fox and Ryan Pace to argue that with better health in 2017, the Bears can take that quantum leap to playoff contention: the best rookie class the Bears have had since at least 2003 or 2000 and one of the three best since 1983; a defense with a foundation of youth and progress in 2016 under Vic Fangio; and a running game behind an offensive line that — properly managed — allows an efficient quarterback to succceed.

Already, current coaching changes in the NFL present opportunities for an upgrade at offensive coordinator. And the Bears still need at least two more solid drafts to catch up to the NFL’s current playoff contenders in terms of talent. But the Bears need growth-from-within as much as anything in order to take a step toward relevance.

Ryan Pace is likely to preach patience and progress when he meets the media Wednesday in his first press conference since the opening of training camp. And after last year’s draft and free-agency class, he has enough credibility for fans to accept that. The bar will be set much higher in 2017 — 8-8 or better. But we’re still a year away from demanding for heads to roll.

2. Pace’s biggest offseason decision will be at quarterback. I’m not expert enough to know if Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer or Mitch Trubisky are worthy of the No. 3 overall pick; or if Jimmy Garoppolo is the next Bobby Layne or Matt Flynn; or if the Bears will have enough around the quarterback in 2017 to make a winner out of veteran Brian Hoyer. But this is the time to start over, and a clean break from the Jay Cutler era will be best for both parties. Just don’t expect Pace to commit to that, or even hint at it, at Wednesday’s press conference.

3. Facts are facts: Since the NFL went to the current 12-team playoff format in 1990, six teams have made the playoffs the season after finishing 3-13 or worse, including the 2008 Dolphins (from 1-15), the 2012 Colts (2-14) and 2013 Chiefs (2-14). But five of them made the big jump after head coaching changes.

Only the 1999 Colts made that big of a jump without a coaching change — going from 3-13 in 1998 to 13-3 in 1999 under Jim Mora. Growth from within made the difference — Peyton Manning was much better in Year 2 than he was as a rookie.

3a. Only three of 31 teams to finish 3-13 since 1990 have made the playoffs the following season: the 1999 Colts, the 2000 Saints and 2006 Saints.

3b. Six of this year’s playoff teams— half the field — were .500 or worse last season: the Cowboys (4-12), Giants (6-10), Dolphins (6-10), Raiders (7-9), Lions (7-9) and Falcons (8-8).

3c. For the record, the Bears’ four playoff appearances since 1995 are tied for the fewest among teams that existed in 1995 — the Bills and Raiders also have four.

In fact, since the Bears last made the playoffs in 2010, 13 of the 15 other NFC teams have played in the postseason. Only the Rams and Buccaneers have not. The Packers (six), Lions (three) and Vikings (two) have combined for 13 playoff appearances since the Bears last made the postseason. Ouch!

4. Based on Pace’s success with the 2016 draft, it’s still too early to give up on the 2015 draft class, which has been stunted by injuries. Pace’s first three draft picks with the Bears — wide receiver Kevin White (four games), nose tackle Eddie Goldman (six) and center Hroniss Grasu (zero) combined to play in 10 of a possible 48 games in 2016.

Goldman already has shown he has Pro Bowl potential if he can stay healthy. White has played in just four games in two seasons — while it’s true that few players have overcome that kind of start in the NFL, few have as much raw talent as White, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

4a. Grasu is an x-factor. He was the starting center in the preseason before suffering a torn ACL simply planting his leg on a screen play in the Family Fest scrimmage at Soldier Field. He is still in rehab, but expects to be “120 percent” for the offseason program.

And he’s got a great attitude after a difficult season. He suffered a non-contact season-ending injury in August. In his place, Whitehair established himself as one of the best centers in the NFL. And the Bears went 3-13.

“I truly believe it was a blessing in disguise,” Grasu said. “Mentally it helped me learn the game even more — I didn’t miss a meeting and got to see the game from a different perspective, like a coach. I was able to take a step back and focus on other things I needed, like upper-body strength. I was able to work on more core, more little muscle groups that I never had to work on before. Hopefully that will help me when I’m playing.”

5. Besides the 19 players on injured reserve, the most glaring statistic of the 2016 season was the Bears’ NFL-low 11 takeaways — breaking the franchise-record low of 17 set last season and tying the NFL-record for fewest takeaways in a season. Just three seasons ago, the Bears had as many touchdowns on interceptions (eight) as they had interceptions this season.

It’s sure to be a point of emphasis in the offseason and figures to improve in 2017. The Cowboys had 11 takeaways last season and improved to 20 this season. The Texans had 11 takeaways in 2013 and had 34 the following season – an increase of 23.

Of the 16 teams that have averaged less than one takeaway a game since 2000, 15 of them improved the following season — with an average jump of 12 takeaways. Of the seven teams in that group that did not have a coaching change, six improved the following season — with an average increase of 8.4 takeaways.

6. This was not a good year for Bears fans tired of hearing about the greatness of Aaron Rodgers and the resilience of the Packers. But while it’s true the Bears are no match for Rodgers, the role of the Packers’ defense — which statistically was worse than the Bears’ defense for much of the season — in the six-game winning streak that propelled the Packers to the division title might sting even more.

In a four-game losing streak near mid-season that left the Packers 4-6, the Packers’ defense was atrocious — allowing 36.5 points and 421 yards per game in losses to the Falcons (33-32), (Colts 31-26), Titans (47-25) and Redskins (42-24).

After that — when it mattered most — a beat-up Packers defense stepped up and allowed 17.0 points and 376 yards per game in the six victories. And those numbers don’t tell the whole story. The Packers’ defense was especially good when it had to be, allowing the Packers to take leads of 27-13, 21-7, 31-3, 27-10, 38-13 and 31-17. In fact, the Packers trailed for just 8:16 of 360 minutes. Only the Bears (10-7) and Lions (14-7) led at all against the Packers in that six-game stretch.

The Packers’ defense still isn’t that great — and figures to be their downfall if they lose in the playoffs — but it snapped to it when Dom Capers needed it to in the regular season. That’s the kind of response Vic Fangio has to get from the Bears’ defense in 2017.

6a. In the last six weeks of the season, the Bears dropped from 10th to 18th in total defense. The Packers improved from 18th to 11th.

7. The Bears had an NFL-high $32.7 million in salary cap space on injured reserve, according to spotrac.com. That includes 12 players with a cap hit of $1 million or higher.

How much of a difference does it make? Here’s how the Bears compare to this year’s playoff teams (number of players with $1 million-plus cap hits in parentheses):

NFC: No. 1 Cowboys (0), No. 2 Falcons (5), No. 3 Seahawks (1), No. 4 Packers (2), No. 5 Giants (3), No. 6 Lions (2).

AFC: No. 1 Patriots (2), No. 2 Chiefs (5), No. 3 Steelers (4), No. 4 Texans (3), No. 5 Raiders (2), No. 6 Dolphins (5).

8. Pace fared fairly well in his roster shakeup from last season — letting running back Matt Forte and linebacker Shea McClellin go in free agency, trading tight end Martellus Bennett and cutting guard Matt Slauson and place-kicker Robbie Gould.

The Bears missed Bennett the most, especially after Zach Miller suffered a season-ending broken foot — but it’s still debatable whether he would have been worth the trouble if he would be pining for a contract all season. Bennett had 55 receptions for 701 yards and seven touchdowns with the Patriots. Slowed by a bum ankle, he wasn’t a big factor after Rob Gronkowski suffered a herniated disc that ended his season – just 17 receptions for 197 yards and three touchdowns in the final seven games.

Rookie Jordan Howard proved to be an upgrade over Forte. Howard, who didn’t become a starter until Week 4, rushed for 1,313 yards and six touchdowns on 252 carries (5.2 avg) — breaking the franchise record for rushing yards by a rookie that Forte set in 2008 (1,238). Forte, slowed by a torn meniscus in his right knee and a sore shoulder, gutted out a career-low 818 yards and seven touchdowns on 218 carries (3.7 avg.) and ended the year on injured reserve.

Signing three-time Pro Bowl guard Josh Sitton gave the Bears an upgrade over Slauson, but Slauson had a pretty good year for the Chargers and might have been better than the Bears thought. He was voted the Chargers’ co-ineman of the year by his teammates, sharing the award with defensive end Joey Bosa — a pretty high honor considering Bosa led all NFL rookies with 9.5 sacks despite missing training camp, the preseason and the first four games of the reguilar season as a contract holdout.

As for Gould … Connor Barth — Pace’s hand-picked successor — missed three of his first seven field-goal attempts with the Bears after replacing Gould, but hit 15 of his last 17 (including a 22-yard attempt that was blocked). He also made 31-of-32 PATs. Gould was 10-for-10 for the Giants in the regular season and 20-of-23 on PATs.

9. Ex-Bear Player of the Week: McClellin capped off a strong second half with a 69-yard fumble return to the 18-yard line — the longest in Patriots history — to all but clinch the Patriots’ 35-14 victory over the Dolphins on Sunday.

McClellin had modest statistics with the Patriots — 41 tackles, one sack — but played a key role on defense after Jamie Collins was traded. He also made an impact on special teams. He hurdled the center to block a field goal against the Ravens in Week 14 and blocked a PAT against the Seahawks.

10. The last time the Bears coaching staff worked the Senior Bowl in 1996, Dave Wannstedt and his assistants fell in love with Mississippi State cornerback Walt Harris and traded three draft picks to move from 18th to 13th in the first round to get him — one pick ahead of Eddie George, five ahead of Marvin Harrison and 13 ahead of Ray Lewis.

Harris was a capable starter for six seasons with the Bears — 15 interceptions, three returned for touchdowns — but never a star. He ended up playing 13 seasons in the NFL and made the Pro Bowl with the 49ers in 2006 — the year he returned a Jay Cutler interception for a touchdown to deny the Broncos a playoff berth.

The Bears also drafted Penn State wide receiver Bobby Engram in the second round and North Alabama defensive tackle Marcus Keyes in the seventh round after seeing them at the Senior Bowl.

In 1992, when Mike Ditka’s staff worked the Senior Bowl, the Bears drafted Virginia Tech quarterback Will Furrer in the fourth round and Texas cornerback Mark Berry in the sixth round after seeing them up close in Mobile.

In 1976, Jack Pardee and his staff coached the South team that included future Hall of Fame wide receiver Steve Largent of Tulsa. The Bears drafted Wisconsin offensive tackle Dennis Lick — the St. Rita product — in the first round and Ohio State wide receiver Brian Baschnagel in the third round. Largent went in the fourth round (117th overall) to the Seahawks.