How optimistic are you about the 2016 Bears? Take our test

Does anybody believe in the Bears?

A team already with a collective chip on its shoulder will have plenty of fodder to prove “everybody” wrong this season. Though John Fox teams have taken a quantum leap in his second season at Carolina in 2003 (7-9 to the Super Bowl) and Denver in 2012 (8-8 to 13-3, with the addition of Peyton Manning), the Bears are not getting the benefit of the doubt after an uninspiring 6-10 record in Fox’s first season in 2015.

Not that there aren’t believers in the Bears. With Fox’s history of building winners and Vic Fangio’s history of building defenses, the Bears are considered a candidate to be a surprise team in the NFL this season. But few if any are enthusiastic enough to actually predict it. The Bears are ranked 16th in si.com’s power rankings; 25th by espn.com; 24th by USA Today; and 22nd by forbes.com. The Vegas-sportsbook over/under win total for the Bears is 7 1/2 this season — it was 7 heading into last season. The offensive line is ranked 30th by Pro Football Focus. Jay Cutler is ranked the 19th best starting quarterback (or 14th worst) in the NFL by cbssports.com.

A CBS-owned web site, 247sports.com, ranks the Bears’ defense ninth in the NFL heading into this season (the Bears were 17th in scoring defense and 14th in total defense in 2015) — but that’s a rare prediction of a significant leap for the Bears this season. They’ll have to prove it on the field.

For what it’s worth, Fox’s Panthers didn’t get a lot of respect heading into the 2003 season — ranked 22nd by espn.com and 29th by cbssportsline.com. The 2012 Broncos were ranked 10th by espn.com, but the addition of the great Manning obviously influenced that analysis.

But the Bears aren’t facing insurmountable odds. Over the past 10 seasons, 31 teams have made the playoffs after having a losing record the previous season — including 22 that were 6-10 or worse.

It’s happened at least once every season. Last year the Vikings — coming off a 7-9 season — were 24th in espn.com’s offseason power rankings. But they finished ninth after going 11-5 in 2015, winning the NFC North and coming within a missed chip-shot field goal of beating the Seahawks in the playoffs.

There’s the rub, though, for the Bears. With the Vikings on the rise and the Packers still formidable with Aaron Rodgers (and the eventual return of Pro Bowl wide receiver Jordy Nelson from a torn ACL), the Bears are in tough in the NFC North. They could take the next step and still finish third in the division. But with an upgraded defense and a lot of young talent, that next step could be bigger than anyone thinks.

With that in mind, here is our annual test of Bears fans’ optimism/pessimism for the upcoming season. Rate these 10 categories, with 10 points for an optimistic vote, minus-10 for a pessimistic vote and zero for a neutral vote — and we’ll just how optimistic or pessimistic you are about the 2016 Bears.

THE CATEGORIES:

ALSHON JEFFERY

Optimist: Motivated by the dreaded franchise tag that will pay him $14.6 million guaranteed this season, a laser-focused Jeffery (78-1,217, 12 TDs) will play every game and take advantage of Kevin White’s emergence as a difference-making receiver to post Calvin Johnson-like numbers and eclipse A.J. Green as the highest-paid receiver in football.

Pessimist: Unhappy with the dreaded franchise tag that will pay him $14.6 million guaranteed this season and unable to stay healthy, a sullen Jeffery (56-756, 4 TDs) will be hit-and-miss all-season, lose interest as White emerges as Jay Cutler’s No. 1 target and sign with the Carolina Panthers in the offseason.

KEVIN WHITE

Optimist: With a motivated Jeffery drawing attention of defenses, White (75-1,478, 10 TDs) will blossom as a big-play receiver on the other side and give the Bears’ their best WR duo since the glory days of Jeffery-Brandon Marshall.

Pessimist: Rusty after missing all of last season, White’s inexperience will show as he struggles (47-733, 5 TDs) to adjust to NFL defenses. He’ll have his moments, but won’t show enough to make Jeffery expendable next offseason.

VIC FANGIO’S DEFENSE

Optimist: With Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman and Eddie Goldman anchoring the middle, Fangio will be able to unleash his pass rushers and turn a questionable secondary into playmakers — with Kyle Fuller and Adrian Amos emerging as Pro Bowl players.

Pessimist: Pernell McPhee will be dogged by injuries, Leonard Fowler will be ineffective and Willie Young and Lamarr Houston won’t repeat their 2015 success, leaving the Bears’ defense again struggling for big plays and unable to get off the field on third down.

DANNY TREVATHAN

Optimist: A perfect fit for Fox and Fangio, Trevathan will reach a new level as a tackle-machine and leader who makes everyone around him better.

Pessimist: Without proven playmakers around him that he had in Denver, Trevathan still will be better than Shea McClellin but not the catalyst the Bears were hoping for.

LEONARD FLOYD

Optimist: Lanky rookie linebacker will start slowly but learn quickly and be as versatile and productive as advertised — a tough matchup wherever he is on the field.

Pessimist: Concerns about his weight will be realized as Floyd is overpowered by NFL blockers and spend most of the year thinking instead of reacting. Will be a man without a position.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Optimist: With right guard Kyle Long back at his best position, rookie Cody Whitehair winning the left guard spot early and bigger, stronger Hroniss Grasu making a big jump at center in his second season, the Bears’ inside strength will establish the run game that will be the foundation of a potent offense.

Pessimist: With Grasu still getting the hang of it and Whitehair battling Ted Larsen at left guard, the line will be a continual work-in-progress. Without Matt Slauson at his side, Charles Leno, Jr. will struggle at left tackle — and Jay Cutler could pay the price.

PERNELL McPHEE

Optimist: With an improved supporting cast, McPhee won’t feel the pressure of being the big free-agent signing, will play free and easy, stay fresh and healthy and reach double-digit sacks for the first time in his career.

Pessimist: Still not recovered from offseason surgery, McPhee will get off to a slow start in training camp, stuggle through the preseason and then rush back as other players excel in his place and hobble through the regular season with minial impact.

JAY CUTLER

Optimist: In a true run-first offense, Cutler will take advantage of Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White and a rejuvenated Eddie Royal to create a niche as one of the most potent game-managers in the league — with fewer attempts but career-highs in yards per attempt, touchdowns and passer rating.

Pessimist: Too many losses on offense — Adam Gase, Matt Forte, Matt Slauson, Martellus Bennett — will put Cutler back in a dangerous position of carrying the load, with the predictable result: too many untimely picks, fumbles and sacks with the usual risk of injury.

DOWELL LOGGAINS’ OFFENSE

Optimist: Loggains’ familiarity with Jay Cutler and his greater emphasis on the run game will give the Bears a diversified offense that can keep defenses on their heels, which will help Kevin White, Jeremy Langford, Cody Whitehair and other young players ease into key roles.

Pessimist: With too many new players and young players, the Bears will struggle to establish the run, preventing Cutler from getting into the groove he needs to avoid untimely mishaps. They will miss Forte, Slauson and even Bennett.

THE ROOKIES

Optimist: With contributions from top (Leonard Floyd, Cody Whitehair) to bottom (Jordan Howard, Deandre Houston-Carson, Daniel Braverman), this will be the Bears’ best rookie draft class since 2004. The upgrade on special-teams alone will make GM Ryan Pace look good.

Pessimist: With Floyd struggling to get on the field, let alone make an impact, the Bears will have few, if any, difference-makers out of this group of rookies. The biggest impact will be on special teams.

Scoring

90-100: Lay off the Kool-Aid.

70-80: A lot of faith in Fox and Fangio

30-60: Realist.

20 to minus-20: Seeing is believing.

Minus-50 to minus-70: Waiting for Ditka’s return.

Minus-80 to minus-100: Packers fan.