7.5 reasons Bears could upset Steelers — or at least cover the spread

On paper, the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears matchup at noon on Sunday (CBS-TV) looks like a gimme.

The vaunted Steelers defense that is allowing just 237 yards and 13.5 points per game goes against a weaponless Bears offense that is averaging 12 points a game.

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who is due to pop a big game, going against Bears signal caller Mike Glennon, who looks more over his shoulder than he does downfield.

And yet, the Steelers are favored by 7.5 points, when it seems it should be more like 10 or 12. This game has much the same feel of the Bears-Falcons matchup in Week 1, a game the 7-point underdog Bears had chances to win outright but lost 27-24.

I know it might be tough to reallocate your investments over to the Bears side this week, but here are 7.5 reasons you should:

+1: At 0-2, the Bears are desperate. Glennon is trying to prove he’s a starter. John Fox is trying to stall his retirement party. Teams that start 0-3 have almost zero chance of making the playoffs. The last to do it was the 1998 Bills. In baseball, it’s OK to say, “wait ’til next year” in late September, not in football. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin knows all about the Bears’ frustration, and it worries him.

“I’ve been 0-2,” Tomlin told The Sporting News. “I know the urgency associated with that in this business,” Tomlin said. “And I’m sure that they feel it. And I’m sure we’re going to get their best effort because of it.

“We’re getting prepared with an edge. We’re too fragile — we’re too new in this team development process, in terms of searching for consistency and acceptable level of play, to take any other approach.”

+2: Mike Glennon is a “Steelers Killer.” That’s right, his last victory as an NFL starter came against these Steelers almost three years ago to the date. Glennon led his winless and 8.5-point underdog Bucs to a 27-24 come-from-behind victory over the Steelers in Tampa Bay. Sound familiar?

Similarly, one of Glennon’s other five NFL victories came against the Falcons, a team he nearly beat in Week 1. The Glennon game from 2014 is not lost on the Steelers. Tomlin showed the team film of it this week.

+3: The Steelers struggle against bad teams away from Pittsburgh. Mike DeCourcy of The Sporting News points out the Steelers are 5-12 under Tomlin in their past 17 road games against sub-.500 teams. It’s not that the Steelers are a bad road team, it’s that bad teams bring out the worst in them. It could explain Tomlin’s urgency.

“Oh and two can be very deceiving,” Steelers DE Cam Heyward told Scout.com. “The Bears took Atlanta to the brink, and then the turnovers they had last week kind of made the game a little bit different than it should’ve been. We’ve got a good test for us. To say it’s a trap game, I don’t know. You can’t say that because they’re a good, really good, team.”

+4: Help is on the way. The Bears have been bitten by the injury bug, but three key players are likely to return in areas the Bears have really suffered. Offensive lineman Kyle Long, wide receiver Markus Wheaton, a former Steeler, and cornerback Prince Amukamara are all expected to see the field for the first time this season.

+5: As expected, the betting public has jumped all over the Steelers and the perceived low line of -7.5. As of now, 76 percent of the bets on this game are on the black and gold, making it the third-most favorite public bet behind the Broncos and the Pats. A little advice: Fade the fish.

+6: John Fox has not been a good bet in September as coach of the Bears. In fact, he’s still looking for his first win against eight losses, but the Atlanta game was progress. That was his first cover in September since taking over in Chicago. And consider this: Under Fox, the Bears are 7-3 ATS when getting getting 8.5 points or fewer.

+7: Even Marc Trestman beat the Steelers. In what was to be the highlight of the Trestman era, the Bears pounded the Steelers 40-23 at Heinz Field in Week 3 of 2013. The 40 points were the most allowed by the Steelers at home since 1999.

“It seems like yesterday, and it seems like a long time ago,” Kyle Long told the Chicago Sun-Times. “We were foot to the pedal — it was Bengals, Vikings, Steelers. I guess I took winning for granted because I was so young.”

+7.5: The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning records. While the Steelers have played down to their opponents, the Bears have played up. Look for the same on Sunday.

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