# The odds of a perfect bracket? It’s not 1 in 9.2 quintillion

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It’s no secret that the odds of picking a perfect bracket in the NCAA tournament are not good.

The number being tossed around a lot lately is 1 in 9.2 quintillion, which is a 9 with 18 zeroes after it. To be even more specific, the odds are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808.

But those odds, according to one Duke University mathematics professor, are only calculated by essentially flipping a coin to determine the outcome of every game. We, of course, have more information available to us before each game tips off.

For example, a 16 seed has never beaten a one seed, so it’s possible to come up with a better number for the overall odds.

The Duke professor, Jonathan Mattingly, determined the overall odds to be closer to 1 in 2.4 trillion.

OK, so the odds are still not good. But substantially better than you thought!

Watch how Mattingly came to the conclusion:

Last year, a 23-year-old Buffalo Grove resident came closest to achieving the perfect bracket.

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