WASHINGTON – A poll conducted by Democratic House hopeful Raja Krishnamoorthi shows him leading with 41 percent against his two eighth congressional district primary rivals and Hillary Clinton ahead of Bernie Sanders on the same northwest suburban turf.
The poll, by the Washington firm Gerstein, Bocian Agne (the firm’s Jim Gerstein is a Chicago area native) was conducted Feb. 9 -11 of 400 likely voters. That is, 81 percent of those surveyed said they were “almost certain” to vote in the March 15 Illinois primary and 17 percent said they probably would. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. Those polled were reached on land lines and cell phones.
Campaigns only share polls with reporters when the numbers are in their favor. I am writing about this poll after getting a copy of the entire survey – not a summary. The House seat is open; after two terms, Rep. Tammy Duckworth D-Ill., is making a Senate bid.
On the presidential front, the survey found 52 percent for Clinton, the former Secretary of State raised in nearby Park Ridge and 40 percent for Sanders, an indication that the Vermont senator is doing well enough to potentially pick up some delegates.
Republican contender Peter DiCianni, a DuPage County Board member, faces no primary opponent.
The top line for the three Democrats in the eighth House race:
Asked, “And thinking about the Democratic primary election for U.S. Congress in March, if the primary election were held today, and the candidates were Raja Krishnamoorthi, Michael Noland and Deb Bullwinkel, for whom would you vote,” the poll found (including folks leaning towards a candidate):
41 percent for Krishnamoorthi, a Schaumburg resident who is the the president of Sivananthan Labs and Episola, Inc. and a former Deputy Treasurer of Illinois. He’s run before for Illinois Comptroller and Congress.
27 percent for Noland, an attorney and state senator from Elgin.
5 percent for Bullwinkel, the president of Villa Park President and owner of the BE Communications Group.
26 percent undecided.
You can find the Sun-Times candidate questionnaires for this race HERE:
Krishnamoorthi’s pollsters also tested the favorability of the 8th rivals and two other Illinois Democrats – and Sen. Dick Durbin D-Ill. comes out best.
The poll asked respondents to rate their feelings, with a high number meaning “very warm, favorable” and a low number “very cold, unfavorable.”
Updated. Here is a fuller explanation of favorable ratings cited below, from the pollsters: “The number cited is the mean score on a 0-100 scale that respondents give when they are able to rate a figure. It best captures intensity of support.
For example, Raja’s mean score of 63 degrees is very good for a candidate for Congress here, but it’s important to note that this is based on the 58 percent of voters who can currently identify him. Overall, his 35 – 10 percent favorable/unfavorable standing is very good, especially compared to Noland’s 22 – 12 percent rating.” End of update.
The favorables, based on the mean number:
73 percent, Durbin
64 percent, Rep. Jan Schakowsky
63 percent Krishnamoorthi
54 percent Noland
43 percent Bullwinkel
Both Durbin and Schakowsky, who represents the ninth district, endorsed Krishnamoorthi; that’s a reason their names were included in the question.
Other findings: most people, 29 percent, who have heard of Krishnamoorthi said it was through mail, handouts or flyers; only 2 percent have seen his website; only 4 percent knew about the Durbin endorsement and only 3 percent knew he went to Harvard and Princeton.
The district includes parts of Addison, Bloomingdale, Carol Stream, Elgin, Elk Grove Village, Glendale Heights, Hanover Park, Hoffman Estates, Lombard, Palatine, Roselle, Schaumburg, Streamwood, Villa Park and Wood Dale.