Saturday’s fight card: Keys to NFL divisional playoff games

As the NFL playoffs enter the divisional round, it’s time to wonder if the four teams coming off byes can maintain momentum against the clubs that emerged from wild-card weekend, three of them victorious on the road.

History suggests home teams will win this week — they’re 16-4 in the last 20 divisional games — given that nobody that has played on wild-card weekend has reached the Super Bowl since the 2012 season.

After a look at the Sunday games, here’s a guide to Saturday’s action.

VIKINGS-49ERS

When: 3:35 p.m. Saturday.

Where: Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.

TV: Ch. 5.

THREE KEYS

1. Formidable front lines: It might be tempting to focus on quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo, but it will be just as fun to watch the defensive lines that will be chasing them. The 49ers’ defensive line has two 2018 Pro Bowl players (Dee Ford and DeForest Buckner), in addition to 2019 honoree Nick Bosa. The Vikings, meanwhile, have two-time Pro Bowl player Danielle Hunter opposite three-time honoree Everson Griffen. The two teams also had 48 sacks apiece in the regular season, tied for fifth in the league.

2. Coaching ties: This goes deeper than Vikings coach Mike Zimmer vs. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan. When Kirk Cousins was drafted in 2012 and made his first NFL start for the Redskins later that year, his offensive coordinator was Shanahan. And when Shanahan was first breaking into the league, the man who first hired him as a position coach was Gary Kubiak, who is now an offensive adviser with the Vikings. In other words, there’s a lot of familiarity here among the two offenses, and it will be interesting to see if Shanahan, in particular, might be able to use his knowledge of Cousins’ strengths and weaknesses to help the 49ers’ defense put him in some uncomfortable spots.

3. Thielen an X-factor? Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen has had a brutal season, dealing with a hamstring injury while struggling to repeat his Pro Bowl performances in 2017 and 2018. But in last week’s wild-card victory over the Saints, he looked like his old self, catching seven passes for 129 yards — including, of course, the pivotal grab in overtime. Thielen figures to face a tough matchup this week in 49ers cornerback Richard Sherman, but if he can put up another 100-yard receiving day, it would provide a huge boost for Minnesota.

TITANS-RAVENS

When: 7:15 p.m. Saturday.

Where: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore.

TV: Ch. 2.

THREE KEYS

1. Run, run, run: The obvious intrigue is the rushing dominance of both sides. The Ravens led the NFL with a whopping average of 206 rushing yards per game, which was more than 45 yards ahead of the next-closest team. Still, the Titans weren’t all that far behind, ranking third with 138.9. Baltimore’s time of possession ranked first (34:47), while the Titans — despite the rushing success — ranked 30th (28:31). For the Titans to upset the Ravens, however, they may need to borrow the strategy of their opponents and slow the game down. As explosive as Baltimore’s offense is, if it’s on the sideline, it’s not as dangerous. This will be a true chess match between the Titans’ Mike Vrabel and the Ravens’ John Harbaugh.

2. Outside zone: Which brings us to the Titans’ bread-and-butter offensive weapon: running back Derrick Henry. The NFL’s regular-season rushing champion, Henry torched the Patriots in the wild-card round with 182 yards and a touchdown on 34 carries. The Titans rarely had to rely on quarterback Ryan Tannehill, though he delivered when he was asked to make throws. Still, Henry’s size (6-3, 247 pounds) makes him difficult to bring down. According to Pro Football Focus, Henry gained 138 of his rushing yards against the Pats after initial contact. Part of that was because the Titans relied on outside zone rushes, allowing Henry to use his patience and vision to read holes and bounce outside. But because Henry is such a big back, that’s a task that’s easier said than done. If Baltimore can slow down Tennessee’s outsize zone, Tannehill will need to step up.

3. Misdirection: And that brings us to Baltimore’s best weapons: the Pistol formation and misdirection. The Ravens use the pistol more than any other team. This allows for the passing attack to incorporate spread schemes that suit Jackson’s experience, but more important, for Jackson to exploit defenses with his explosive athleticism. So many of Baltimore’s plays under offensive coordinator Greg Roman involve quarterback Lamar Jackson faking a handoff and shifting to the other direction. This slows the rate defenses can diagnose plays. And if Tennessee is slow in assessing what to do, Jackson will have the time he needs to have a big day.