Simulating the state basketball playoffs: How the Class 1A tournament could have played out

The 2020 Illinois High School Association’s boys state basketball playoffs will never be completed. All the players and coaches were left stuck just steps from Peoria.

There’s nothing anyone can do about that. But a day after the cancellation I had an idea. Sports video games are huge. I regularly play a computer baseball simulation game called OOTP Baseball. Why couldn’t we do something like that for the state playoffs?

I asked around and found a few people willing to take on the task and ended up deciding to go with The Barking Crow.

The Barking Crowstarted in 2017 as All Things NIT, a farcical college basketball blog written by someone very bored at work. While it’s still primarily a farcical sports blog, it’s expanded to include legitimate statistical forecasting surrounding the College Football Playoff, the NCAA Tournament, and the NIT.

The Barking Crow used Aaron Britton’s (@NestoHoops) spreadsheets as data for the simulation. They are available on his website.

Obviously this is all totally fictional and made up and just for fun. So I made a few rules. I’m not going to mention any player names in the short write-ups. It doesn’t seem proper to have a high school kid’s name attached to something that he isn’t involved in. For that same reason I’m not going to use any of our pictures.

Just to be very clear: The IHSA has nothing to do with this. The schools and teams are not involved in any way. This is a completely fictional result based on data from the season.

Class 1A and Class 2A will be released on Tuesday. Check back on Wednesday for Class 3A and Thursday for Class 4A.

CLASS 1A

State semifinal: Aurora Christian 55, Madison 52

This one was close throughout. Madison led 30-29 at halftime. Aurora Christian led 40-35 after three quarters but Madison charged back and led 52-48 with 1:35 to play. The Eagles closed the game with a 6-0 run to earn a spot in the state title game.

State semifinal: Roanoke-Benson 60, Goreville 53

Roanoke-Benson jumped out to a 21-7 lead and led 33-21 at halftime. But things got close. Goreville cut the lead to four points early in the fourth quarter but Roanoke-Benson held on for the win.

State championship: Roanoke-Benson 52, Aurora Christian 47

This was a good one. The teams were tied at halftime. Roanoke-Benson built a small lead in the third quarter. Aurora Christian pulled to within two points with 6:01 left to play but the Rockets closed strong to win the state title.