Opportunity knocks for Bears’ defense vs. Brady

With possession at their 9-yard line in the final minute of the first half last week, the Chargers were about to go into halftime with a 24-7 lead against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.

But on a first-down running play, when all he had to do was hold on to the ball, Chargers rookie running back Joshua Kelly bobbled the handoff, was hit in the backfield by Ndamukong Suh and fumbled. The Buccaneers recovered at the Chargers’ 6, and Brady did what he does best — he took advantage of an opportunity.

On third-and-six, Brady threw a touchdown pass to Mike Evans that cut the deficit to 24-14 at halftime. Brady threw three more touchdown passes in the second half to give the Buccaneers a 38-31 victory.

It has been a long time since the Bucs have gotten those kinds of breaks — and had the right guy to take advantage of them. That’s the Tom Brady Effect. Whatever the “it” factor is, Brady has it.

Fate always seems to move its huge hand in Brady’s favor. Like when Dee Ford lined up offside on an interception that would’ve clinched a Chiefs victory in the AFC Championship Game in 2019. Or when Matt Ryan was sacked and Jake Matthews was called for holding on back-to-back plays to take the Falcons out of range for a field goal that likely would’ve clinched Super Bowl LI.

Bears defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano has felt that pain. In the AFC Championship Game in 2012, when Pagano was the Ravens’ defensive coordinator, Baltimore shut down Brady — intercepted him twice and held him without a touchdown pass for the first time in 19 postseason games a week after Brady threw six against the Broncos. His 57.5 passer rating was the second-lowest of his playoff career.

But it all went for naught when Billy Cundiff missed a 32-yard field goal for a tie with 11 seconds left.

Beating Brady is tough because you have to beat his will to win. When your respect turns to fear, he’s got you. But when your aggressiveness turns to recklessness, you’re cooked, as well. The challenge for the Bears’ defense Thursday night at Soldier Field is to just play football.

Just ask Pagano. He’s 1-12 against Brady as a position coach, coordinator and head coach — with the lone victory in a wild-card playoff game in 2010, when Brady had a career-postseason-low 49.1 rating.

“I’ve overcooked it a bunch of times,” Pagano said, “where we’ve gone in and said, ‘OK, because we’re playing Tom Brady, we’ve got to change all our signals because he knows everything.’

“By the end of the week, we sit there and we said, ‘Nobody knows what the hell we’re talking about or what we’re doing.’ You end up going back to using all the stuff you’ve been using.”

At 43, Brady is coming off a virtuoso five-touchdown performance against the Chargers. He still shows his age and diminishing arm strength every so often. Brady has thrown a pick-six in three of his last five games — in the playoff loss to the Titans last season and against the Saints and Chargers this season.

But he’s still Tom Brady. You give him a chance to beat you, he will. It’s a huge test for a Bears defense that has been good this season when it expects to be great. This is how you prove it.

“He can make you look foolish because he gets them in the right play 99.9% of the time,” Pagano said. “So we’ve got to play 11 as one. Everybody’s got to do their job. They’re gonna make some plays. We’re gonna make some plays. Just kind of hang in there and keep swinging and know that he’s the GOAT.”