Are you bullish on the Bears for 2020?

It’s make-or-break time for the Bears.

A year ago, the Bears were at a typical crossroad for an upstart NFL team. Coming off a rejuvenating 12-4 playoff season, would they be the Rams — who took the next step after ending a long playoff drought and reached the Super Bowl? Or the Jaguars — who were exposed as fool’s gold and plummeted to 5-11 in 2018 after nearly beating the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game the previous season?

As it turned out, the Bears were neither the Rams nor the Jaguars. They finished right in the middle at 8-8 — closer to the Jaguars as a non-playoff team, but not exactly back to square one.

Today, the Bears’ arrow is pointing neither up nor down, but straight at coach Matt Nagy. The former Kansas City Chiefs assistant coach inherited an elite defense when the Bears hired him in 2018 and now it’s time for him to hold up his end of the bargain — nurture a quarterback, develop an offense and win the game-day chess match against opposing defensive coordinators. In the NFL, culture is great. Sundays are defining.

And this is a defining season for Nagy. A year ago, the Bears traded the productive Jordan Howard to give Nagy the running back he needed in rookie David Montgomery. This year, he has a legitimate Plan B for Mitch Trubisky in veteran Nick Foles, a former Super Bowl MVP — and also hired two quarterback-centric assistants in offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo to get the most out of them.

Nagy hired Juan Castillo to replace the respected Harry Hiestand as offensive line coach to get the running game he needs. General manager Ryan Pace signed Jimmy Graham and drafted Cole Kmet 43rd overall to upgrade the all-important tight end position. The investment at wide receiver was little more modest — signing 35-year-old Ted Ginn to a one-year contract and drafting Darnell Mooney in the fifth round. But holdovers Allen Robinson and 2019 second-round draft pick Anthony Miller isn’t the worst place to start.

The focus rightfully has been on the Bears’ quarterbacks, but this is Nagy’s year. His offense not only ranked 29th in the NFL last season, but didn’t show many signs of hope, because the Bears’ were substandard everywhere — from the quarterback to the running game to the play calling.

But Nagy has a chance for a huge payoff if he can turn that around. The Bears’ defense, even without nose tackle Eddie Goldman, figures to be better in 2020 than it was in 2019 — when takeaways dropped from 36 in 2018 to 19. If Nagy revitalizes the offense — even to a top-15 level — the Bears suddenly become a legitimate threat in the NFC North. And if Nagy takes it to another level, the Bears’ prospects increase exponentially.

The buzz on the Bears indicates there’s not much faith in that rosy outlook. The Bears are 40-1 in Las Vegas to win the Super Bowl — tied for 17th in the NFL. Their win total is anywhere from 7.5 to 8.5. The Bears are 21st in ESPN’s power rankings — and that’s one of the more optimistic rankings. USA Today has them 27th — last among NFC North teams.

But the Bears are tough to figure. Two years ago, ESPN’s NFL beat writers had the Bears going 0-16 in their preseason game-by-game predictions — the Bears went 12-4. Last year, they had them going 11-5 and the Bears went 8-8. This year, they compositely have the Bears going 6-10. That sounds like a worst-case scenario — and could lead to a very interesting offseason at Halas Hall.

With that in mind, here is our annual test of Bears fans optimism/pessimism for the upcoming season. Rate these categories, with 10 points for an optimistic vote, minus-10 for a pessimistic vote and zero for a neutral vote.

Scoring

90-100: Lay off the Kool-Aid.

70-80: Must be new in town.

30-60: Realist.

20 to minus-20: Seeing is believing.

Minus-50 to minus-70: Waiting for Ditka’s return.

Minus-80 to minus-100: Packers fan.

MITCH TRUBISKY

Optimist: After being coddled for two years under Matt Nagy, Trubisky responds to the challenge of Nick Foles with a renewed focus that unleashes all the quarterback qualities Ryan Pace saw in him to begin with. A more accurate Trubisky finds his RPO groove and blossoms with an energized offense into the unquestioned leader of the Bears.

Pessimist: As it turns out, sometimes the critics do count and it’s the Man in the Arena who fails. Trubisky loses the quarterback derby to Nick Foles, gets a chance to pull a Nick Foles late in the season and falters — and rides out his time with the Bears backing up Tyler Bray. He signs a back-up deal with the Panthers in the offseason.

NICK FOLES

Optimist: Foles loses the quarterback derby to Trubisky, but when Trubisky fails, Foles does what he does best — come off the bench to lead his team to the playoffs. The Bears rally behind him, and Foles regains his 2013 touch, when he led the NFL in passer rating.

Pessimist: Foles wins the quarterback derby, but is no better as a No. 1 with the Bears than he was with the Eagles, Rams or Jaguars. Unable to lift a struggling offense on his shoulders, Foles is mired in mediocrity as the sad truth is revealed: The former Super Bowl MVP is only as good as the offense around him.

MATT NAGY

Optimist: With a quality quarterback, running game and tight end in place, Nagy finally finds his Andy Reid groove, inventively utilizing Tarik Cohen, Cordarrelle Patterson and Eddie Jackson to befuddle opposing defensive coordinators and take the Bears’ offense to a new level — top five in the NFL in points and yards.

Pessimist: Without a quality quarterback, running game and tight end in place, Nagy’s inability to build his own offense continues to be exposed, his play-calling becomes even more confused and even his best suit — culture building — comes into question as player impatience becomes more overt. Year Three defines him as the problem and not the solution.

THE RUN GAME

Optimist: Nagy’s decision to fire Hiestand and hire Castillo turns out to be a masterstroke, as a rejuvenated offensive line — with Pro Bowlers Cody Whitehair and Charles Leno and alternate Germain Ifedi — turns David Montgomery into a Kareem Hunt facsimile with 1,200 yards, 4.7 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns and allows Trubisky or Foles to continually operate in favorable down-and-distance situations to keep defenses on their heels. And Tarik Cohen finally becomes the feared weapon as a gadget player he looked like he could be in 2017-18.

Pessimist: The offensive line is the biggest victim of the COVID-19 offseason — robbing Castillo of the opportunity to install his scheme and utilize his “we’ll-outwork-everybody-else” strategy. And it shows. With subpar line play, the running game continues to stagnate and the offense follows suit. Montgomery is just a guy. Cohen is a non-factor. And a daunting reality hits Pace: He needs two first-round caliber offensive tackles.

COLE KMET/JIMMY GRAHAM

Optimist: Kmet learns not only well but quickly and shows an instinct for the nuances of the tight end position in Nagy’s offense. That helps produce the offensive diversity and conflict-of-assignment that creates opportunities for the 33-year-old Graham, who has his best season in the NFL since his glory days with the Saints — nearly 1,000 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns.

Pessimist: Nagy’s black hole at tight end continues, as Kmet needs time to learn the nuances of the tight end position in Nagy’s offense and doesn’t have enough speed to accelerate the growth process. The 33-year-old Graham can no longer create his own opportunities, which makes him useless in this offense.

ROBERT QUINN

Optimist: The right guy at the right place at the right time. With Kahlil Mack on the other side and Roquan Smith blossoming into a star whom offenses have to account for on every down, Quinn’s finishing ability is just what the Bears have been looking for. He cleans up with 12+ sacks, but just the threat of another actual closer puts a fear in opposing offenses that makes every Bears defender better.

Pessimist: A bad fit from the start. Quinn struggles to adjust to playing outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense and in reality is a situational player who is useful only on passing downs. His production is closer to 2018 in Miami (6.5 sacks) than his 11.5-sack season with the Cowboys in 2019. And his overall impact is even less.

KHALIL MACK

Optimist: Quietly motivated by a drop in stature — he fell from No. 3 to No. 19 in NFL Network’s annual Top 100 list, which is voted on by players — Mack takes advantage of having a healthy Akiem Hicks back and newcomer Robert Quinn on the field to again become a devastating weapon on every down, with 15 sacks and 22 QB hits.

Pessimist: While still a quality pass rusher, it turns out 2019 was a sign of a career downturn more than Mack being a victim of double- and triple-teaming. And the reality is that at 29, Mack no longer is the devastating threat he once was. He struggles to match last year’s 8.5 sacks.

CHUCK PAGANO’S DEFENSE

Optimist: Even with nose tackle Eddie Goldman opting out because of COVID-19, the return of defensive end Akiem Hicks and linebackers Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathan, the addition of Robert Quinn and the growth of Eddie Jackson provide a boost that revives the takeaway bite (28-30) the Bears lost in 2019.

Pessimist: Goldman’s absence, a couple of key injuries and early aging turn the once-vaunted Bears front-seven into an average unit, which exposes holes in the secondary — it turns out the Bears miss cornerback Prince Amukamara and safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix more than they thought. Still in the upper half of the NFL, but not the elite unit it used to be.

EDDY PINEIRO

Optimist: Not bringing a second kicker to camp turns into a winning move as Pineiro — after a mentally taxing year constantly on the bubble — responds to the vote of confidence by taking a big step toward maturing into a reliable, headstrong Soldier Field kicker. He has the best year for a Bears kicker since Robbie Gould made 26-of-29 field goals in 2013.

Pessimist: Unchallenged in training camp after the kicker derby of 2019, Pineiro is unable to take the next step and struggles with consistency. As it turns out, he’s not quite as headstrong as he appears and his confidence erodes amid constant questions about his misses and talk of bringing in a challenger. He’s not the answer.

COVID-19 IMPACT

Optimist: Matt Nagy’s 21st-century management style — his ability to maximize the Zoom meetings and adjust to the challenging times — and the Bears overall response to COVID-19 restrictions prove to be a boon that allows the Bears to hit the ground running and stay healthy through the season. And it gives them an edge.

Pessimist: Without a true bubble, not even the Bears’ best efforts to manage the COVID-19 restrictions can prevent the season from going off track. Injuries are up because nobody could train properly in the offseason. And outbreaks around the league create havoc with the schedule. The Bears finish 6-6 and miss the playoffs — which are held in a bubble in Toronto and Edmonton.