Blackhawks’ recent salary cap issues forewarn of impending crunch in summer 2020

LAS VEGAS — The worsening of Andrew Shaw’s concussion has moved the Blackhawks out of salary cap purgatory for now.

But the paralyzing cap crunch of the past couple weeks, even if out of sight now, was only a sample of the conundrum that will confront the Hawks next summer.

General manager Stan Bowman can consider that a warning shot.

Shaw’s Monday placement on long-term injured reserve takes his $3.5 million cap hit off the books until at least Dec. 27 — the first day Shaw will be eligible to return — and gives the Hawks plenty of money to work with in the meantime.

They were able to recall Adam Boqvist and Matthew Highmore for this three-game road trip and actually carried both a forward (Highmore) and defenseman (Slater Koekkoek) healthy scratch for Tuesday’s matchup against the Golden Knights.

Thus, the unfathomable reality of playing an entire game a man down, with so many injuries and so little cap space that an AHL recall was impossible, will probably not happen again this season — even if last week’s 17-skater loss to the Blues lives on forever as the go-to example of how things can always get worse.

This tight cap situation will remain very relevant, though, especially when this season’s Feb. 24 trade deadline and the inevitable glances ahead to the coming offseason draw nearer.

Right now, the Hawks have roughly $70.1 million tied up in just 16 players for the 2020-21 season. If the salary cap rises by $2 million again (as it did last summer), the Hawks would have $13.4 million to work with next summer, although Sportsnet recently reported a larger cap increase — perhaps in the $4 million range — could occur.

Regardless, Bowman will have his work cut out for him.

Dylan Strome will be a restricted free agent (RFA) and will presumably ask for a salary approaching the $6.4 million Alex DeBrincat will annually receive on his extension. Strome alone could eat up half the Hawks’ space.

Robin Lehner and Corey Crawford — who currently tout $6 million and $5 million hits, respectively — will both be unrestricted free agents (UFA), and the Hawks will almost certainly only have the room to retain one. That will be a painful choice to make.

Erik Gustafsson will also be a UFA and his asking price should well exceed what the Hawks can afford, thus making it very likely he’ll be dealt in February if the Hawks aren’t in close playoff contention.

Koekkoek, Dominik Kubalik and Drake Caggiula will be RFAs, as well. Even if they aren’t retained, the Hawks will need to sign some depth pieces simply to fill out the roster.

All told, the Hawks face an exceedingly unfavorable financial outlook for the coming offseason, and that’s with a team that will likely be coming off a third straight playoff miss — the Hawks’ odds entering Tuesday were 22.2 percent, per MoneyPuck, sitting more than 30 percentage points lower than any of the other six stacked Central Division teams.

At some point, Bowman will need to make a decision about his loyalty to the Hawks expensive, aging core. Come summer 2021 and the Seattle expansion draft, that mass of no-trade clauses could cost the Hawks the ability to protect a key member of their planned future core.

But that decision doesn’t seem imminent. For now, the Hawks will continue to operate in the slim margins directly beneath the NHL’s hard cap, hoping to scrape by for another week, another month, another season.

Last week, they were burned for that lack of leeway. Next summer, they could be toasted.