NHL Draft prospect pool indicative of hockey’s shifting size expectations

BUFFALO, N.Y. — Bowen Byram almost certainly will be the first defenseman taken in the NHL Draft this month, even if the Blackhawks don’t snag him third overall.

When that happens, it will be only the second time since 2008 that the top-picked defenseman in the draft is shorter than 6-1.

Byram isn’t small by any means, but his 6-foot, 195-pound stature pales by comparison to the hulk-like defensemen chosen in the upper echelons of first rounds earlier this decade: 6-4 Aaron Ekblad in 2014, 6-4 Seth Jones in 2013 and 6-5 Erik Gudbranson in 2010.

The new trend of valuing skill over size is omnipresent throughout the cast of future NHL superstars expected to be chosen in the top 15, who spent last week interviewing with teams and performing physical tests at the 2019 NHL Combine.

Scouting director Mark Kelley said Friday that the Hawks have narrowed the list of candidates for their much-anticipated first-round pick to six. And though he didn’t name them, it’s not a hard half-dozen to guess.

And most of them are a bit more like Alex DeBrincat than John Hayden, which is understandable, given where the league is headed.

Cole Caufield, a 5-7 sniper from Wisconsin who heard comparisons to DeBrincat all week, headlines the bantamweight brigade.

‘‘For Cole Caufield, I think Alex opened a door for him,’’ Kelley said. ‘‘People in my business are gonna say: ‘Fool me once. Fool me twice? Good luck.’ If you did a do-over with Alex two years [later], where would he go?’’

Caufield is far from the brigade’s only member. Alex Turcotte, a local prospect arguably tied with Byram as the popular favorites for the Hawks’ selection, is a scrappy 5-11 center known for his ability to get open in dangerous spots.

Trevor Zegras and Peyton Krebs, two of the top playmakers in the draft, are 6-0 and 5-11, respectively. Consensus top pick Jack Hughes even fits the bill at 5-11 and 170 pounds. But when one reporter called him ‘‘small,’’ he didn’t take it well.

‘‘I don’t think I’m very small; I think I’m right there in the middle,’’ he said, probably correctly, considering the dynamics of the 2019 NHL. ‘‘You see where the game’s gone, it’s a speed-and-skill game. Guys like [Johnny] Gaudreau, 99 points; [Nikita] Kucherov, 128; [Patrick] Kane, 110. These aren’t big guys putting up those points. I think I translate well to the new game.’’

Scouting has changed to focus on measuring how elite each prospect is at his best skills, rather than how many things he doesn’t do well, said Dan Marr, the NHL’s director of central scouting. Likewise, most teams don’t look at size anymore.

That translates to different prevailing characteristics within the top-ranked prospect pool. Compared with the top 30 North American skaters in 2009, the top 30 in 2019 is — on average — a half-inch shorter and five pounds lighter but scored 0.2 points more per game in juniors last season.

It used to be that pocket-sized superstar Martin St. Louis was considered a one-of-a-kind anomaly, a feisty mouse running amok through the NHL’s redwoods.

But the Lightning legend, who retired in 2015, was merely 5-8. That doesn’t seem so odd today. Asked for NHL models besides DeBrincat on Saturday, Caufield easily rattled off a list: the Blue Jackets’ Cam Atkinson (5-8), the Canadiens’ Brendan Gallagher (5-9) and the Golden Knights’ Jonathan Marchessault (5-9).

‘‘All of those guys having success at the top level [as] slight guys, it’s given smaller guys like me hope,’’ Caufield said. ‘‘The game has changed. It’s more speed and skill, and I don’t think size is a big risk anymore. Smaller guys like me can have a big impact.’’