Will facing three progressive Democrats guarantee U.S. Rep. Dan Lipinski a primary win?

WASHINGTON — Will three progressive Democrats who support abortion rights running against Rep. Dan Lipinski in the March Illinois primary split the opposition and all but guarantee Lipinski’s reelection?

It certainly gives Lipinski, 53, a running start in the 2020 primary while forcing his main challenger Marie Newman, who narrowly lost in 2018, to recalibrate her strategy.

Winning the nomination in the heavily Democratic 3rd Congressional District, which takes in some Southwest Side wards and southwest suburbs, is tantamount to winning election.

In 2018, Newman, who’s from LaGrange, lost to Lipinski, who’s from Western Springs, by a margin of 51.1% to 48.9%.

Newman, 55, supportive of abortion and gay rights, had the field to herself in 2018 in drawing contrasts with the right-of-center, anti-abortion, culturally conservative Lipinski, who’s made his focus transportation issues.

Two political newcomers also are in the race: Abe Matthew, 32, a Bridgeport attorney, and Rush Darwish, 42, a Palos Hills resident who runs a photo- and video-production business.

Leslie Adkins / Sun-Times file

Provided photo

Provided photo

Newman doesn’t dispute that the 2020 political landscape is more challenging. But she told me, “I believe it’s still a binary race.”

Lipinski, asked whether having three progressive rivals strengthens his hand, told me, “It’s likely that it would be helpful.”

“I’m certainly not counting on all three of them being in there,” Lipinski said, alluding to the possibility not all of them will make the ballot. “We’ll see how their campaigns play out.”

Democrats, who won the House in 2018, are finding that, in the Trump era, progressives are more empowered and more willing to take on Democrats in supposedly safe districts — taking a cue from the 2018 primary upsets by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York, and others.

As the incumbent, Lipinski has the benefit of being backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the House Democratic political organization. Newman’s campaign was wounded by the DCCC keeping Democratic vendors from working on challenger campaigns. Newman said she has since found new consultants.

Matthew and Darwish are factors for the time being because, according to the most recent Federal Election Commission reports, they raised enough money to be viable — for now anyway.

For the 2020 cycle, Lipinski has raised $509,739 and, as of June 30, has $713,083 cash on hand. Newman has collected $539,901 and has $352,173 cash on hand. Darwish’s receipts totaled $134,651, and he has $133,033 cash on hand. Matthew took in $78,010 and has $72,081 cash on hand.

Newman has the support of all of the major national and local progressive groups. In May, EMILY’s List, MoveOn, NARAL Pro-Choice America, Planned Parenthood Action Fund, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy for America announced they’re backing Newman, jumping in the race much earlier than they did in 2018.

The progressive groups in Illinois 3 — Grab the Wheel Western Suburbs, Illinois 123GO, Indivisible Brookfield, Indivisible La Grange/La Grange Park, Indivisible Western Springs, Progressive Democrats of America IL-03, Progressive Indivisible Berwyn, Southwest Suburban Snowflakes and West Suburban Action League — formed the Coalition for Change IL 3 earlier this year.

The coalition, concerned about splitting the anti-Lipinski vote, decided to make an early endorsement of Newman, announcing for her on July 10, saying she’s the most progressive of the challengers.

“Some of the things we heard from Darwish and Matthew didn’t paint them as progressive as we were hoping,” Abby McEntee of Indivisible Western Springs said.

Voter turnout in the district in the 2018 primary was 26%. With the Democratic presidential contest likely to still be roaring when Illinois holds its primary in March, turnout will be higher.

“We have an election coming up that is going to bring in thousands of new voters,” Darwish said. “I still believe anything is possible in an election. We saw what happened with AOC in New York.”

Said Matthew, “We can do it.”