Outcome of Kris Bryant grievance hearing won’t slow Cubs in trade talks this winter

Cubs expect the decision on Bryant’s October hearing over service-time manipulation to land in their favor and preserve the remaining two years of club control over the 2016 MVP.

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Kris Bryant

Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

SAN DIEGO — One day into the winter meetings in San Diego, two things have become crystal clear about the Cubs and their efforts this offseason. 

The first is that any significant move in the free-agent market is dependent upon how much projected 2020 payroll they can move off the current roster — whether that means a trade of star third baseman Kris Bryant or packaging a lower-cost star such as Willson Contreras with a big contract such as Jason Heyward.

“We offered them a middle-of-the-rotation guy that wouldn’t have cost them more than $4 or $5 million, and they said they couldn’t do anything until they cleared some payroll,” one agent said upon arriving at the meetings.

The second is that the outcome of Bryant’s service-time-manipulation grievance, which was heard in October, won’t be a speed bump to any potential trade talks the Cubs might make involving the 2016 MVP, who could be in line for a salary north of $18 million in arbitration next season.

“It’d be nice to have a final confirmation, but I think we’re operating with what our understanding of the likely outcome will be and moving forward that way,” team president Theo Epstein said Monday night.

Officials from both sides of the grievance say they haven’t heard any results or definite timeline for an arbitrator’s decision on whether to award Bryant free agency after the 2020 season, instead of the following year the Cubs secured by delaying his big-league debut in 2015.

“I think we’re fairly confident in what the outcome’s going to be. But the timing I guess is a bit frustrating,” Epstein said. “It’d be nice to know. We’re at the winter meetings, and there hasn’t been a ruling. But I understand these things take time. And I think certainly it’s not going to be more than a couple weeks ago.”

Industry insiders from both the teams’ and players’ side of the business consider it a long shot that the case will result in a decision that would cause, as Epstein suggested, “a whole service-time structure to be upended in one ruling.”

And even the certainty that Bryant’s trade value continues to include two years of club control doesn’t mean the three-time All-Star will be traded.

But other teams are getting the message loud and clear that the Cubs are open for business this week and that big names are in play.

My gosh, those guys are really good baseball players, and it’s kind of strange to hear they would consider being dealt at such an early point in their development because they’re not done developing as major league players either,” said Angels manager Joe Maddon, who managed Bryant and Contreras since they made their major-league debuts.

Maddon, who called it a sign of the times that the “math” of service time and competitive windows dictate more decisions in the game in recent years.

“I do understand that part where, when it gets down to the very end, you want to get somebody before he just signs and goes [to free agency],” Maddon added. “Why can’t you just sign him, too? I understand that. Derek Jeter stuck around a long time — a lot of those Yankees did — and they were all pretty good.

“When you talk about Contreras or KB or the boys I’ve had in the past, they’re really good players. They’re still going to get better. That’s what makes it more difficult.”

For now, Epstein still calls it “the early stages of the offseason” for the Cubs, who may have to wait out a suddenly accelerating free-agent market to see where some of their best moves may lie. 

That would include a third base market that includes free agents Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson.

“Activity’s picking up a little bit, but we’re still not close to anything,” Epstein said.

As for Maddon, whose team is in the market for at least a catcher, it’s not hard to imagine him coveting either Contreras or Bryant.

“No comment,” he said. “I love both of those guys.”

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