Why does this Cubs season look so different from the last four? It’s the pitching, stupid

Cubs manager Joe Maddon has belabored the point in recent weeks as much as many of his hitters have labored over the task of landing a baseball on the outfield grass.

If this team is going to get on the extended streak of winning he believes is coming, he says, it will be a result of improved two-strike, two-out and otherwise situational hitting by the group.

Maybe.

But Maddon regularly and conspicuously sidesteps the real culprit of the Cubs’ first-half stutter step to the All-Star break — and the real difference-maker that recent history says will determine whether the Cubs get to the playoffs again, much less whether they do anything in October once they get there.

Just as any self-respecting presidential candidate knows “it’s the economy, stupid,” every baseball manager knows “it’s the pitching, stupid.”

With all due respect to Pedro Strop, even Yasiel Puig probably knows that much.

And maybe that’s why Maddon keeps talking about hitting as the key to the second half — because the Cubs might have to outhit their pitching inconsistencies to win this year.

The Cubs have not come close to pitching as well as they have throughout their four-year run of playoff seasons under Maddon during the first half of this year, with injuries to Jon Lester in April, Kyle Hendricks in mid-June and Cole Hamels two weeks ago coming just as each starter was at the top of his game.

Lester and Hendricks are back. Hamels’ timeline with an oblique strain is uncertain.

But the bigger issues going forward involve the unreliability of Yu Darvish and the depth that includes walk-prone Tyler Chatwood, slug-prone Mike Montgomery and raw prospect Adbert Alzolay, who recorded one good start and one bad one.

This is a far cry from the starting rotation that led the majors in ERA in 2016 by more than half a run and won a World Series behind Jake Arrieta and Cy Young finalists Lester and Hendricks.

With the veteran Lester three years older, Hamels hurt and the back end spotty at best, this might be the least reliable version of a position area that has been the backbone of all those Cubs’ playoff runs.

“We rely on that a lot,” said Maddon, who touts the return to health of Hendricks and the anticipated return of Hamels.

But he also quickly goes back to focusing on his hitters when the subject comes up.

“I’m still a pitching and defense guy, but we have to hit to our abilities to really arrive where we want to arrive by the end of the year,” he said.

That’s certainly true if Darvish (NL-worst 5.01 ERA) continues to throw like a prospect still learning how to harness his exceptional stuff and if Alzolay pitches like he belongs in AAA as he did in his second big-league start.

The biggest difference in the Cubs’ awful (18-27) record on the road this year?

It’s the pitching, stupid.

The Cubs’ pitching staff has a 4.97 ERA on the road this year — compared to 3.26 at home.

The starters set the tone. The rotation is 15-18 with a 4.67 ERA and 51/3 innings per start on the road, compared to 15-10, 3.44 and six innings at home in the same number of games.

“It’s been our focus all year, but we need to lock in on it even more with Cole [sidelined], how well he was pitching for us,” Hendricks said of putting a collective streak together as a rotation for the Cubs to succeed in the second half. “We’ve got to come out in the second half and establish our identity again, getting ahead early, being aggressive and getting some quick outs, for me especially.”

Hendricks was 6-0 with a 1.99 ERA over eight starts and pitching the best, he said, of any stretch in his career until shoulder inflammation flared up June 14.

He returned ahead of schedule, made two starts before the break and said he’s “really close” to that midseason form.

The Cubs will need every bit of it. And probably a strong finish from 35-year-old horse Lester.

“We talk about it in spring training, how long the season is and how much of a roller coaster it is,” Lester said of the overall first-half malaise and what’s at stake starting with the first two series against division opponents Pittsburgh and Cincinnati the next six days.

“I don’t think anybody in this clubhouse is worried about where we’re at,” he said. “We’ve got to dig ourselves [out of] our own hole right now and focus on each other and focus on what we can do day in and day out to win baseball games. And the outside noise of the panic and all that other stuff won’t affect us.”