Cubs finished six games worse than their runs scored/allowed indicated they should

The bullpen blew too many late-inning leads. The starting pitching faded after the All-Star break. Leadoff men didn’t get on base often enough.

SHARE Cubs finished six games worse than their runs scored/allowed indicated they should
Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward had a .343 on-base percentage overall, but that number fell to .252 in the leadoff spot.

Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward had a .343 on-base percentage overall, but that number fell to .252 in the leadoff spot.

Quinn Harris/Getty Images

By the numbers, this should have been a better season for the Cubs.

There were problems, of course. The bullpen blew too many late-inning leads. The starting pitching faded after the All-Star break. Leadoff men didn’t get on base often enough.

But by Bill James’ Pythagorean formula, the Cubs’ 814 runs scored and 717 runs allowed normally would lead to a record near 90-72 instead of their actual 84-78. With the Cardinals winning the National League Central with 91 victories and the Brewers claiming a wild-card berth with 89, the shortfall doomed the Cubs in manager Joe Maddon’s final season.

The six-game difference tied for the largest in the majors on the negative side with the Orioles, who won 54 games instead of the 60 suggested by their run data. The biggest gainers were the Brewers, who with 89 victories were eight games better than their Pythagorean projection.

Chance is usually the major component in large differences between Pythagorean and actual records, but unusual success or failure in the bullpen or in clutch hitting can move the needle.

There is a tendency for teams with large differences between Pythagorean and actual records to regress toward norms the next season. In 2018, the 89-73 Mariners were 12 games better than their Pythagorean projection and the 92-70 Dodgers were 10 games worse. Each was one game below their projection this season, the Mariners with 68 victories and the Dodgers with 106.

Let’s check out a few numbers from the first Cubs team not to reach the postseason since 2014:

• The Cubs’ 4.18 ERA by starting pitchers was the sixth-best in the NL. After the break, that rose to 4.38, eighth in the league. Jon Lester’s ERA soared from 3.72 before the break to 5.35 after and Cole Hamels’ from 2.98 before to 5.79 after. Both will enter their age-36 seasons in 2020.

•  Overall, the Cubs’ bullpen performed pretty well. Their relievers had a 3.98 ERA, fourth in the NL.

But the worst came out in high-leverage situations. With 38 saves and 28 blown saves, the Cubs’ 57.6 percent success rate was the fourth-worst in the NL, ahead of only the Rockies (54.9), Marlins (55.1) and Pirates (56.4). The Cardinals had highest save percentage, with 52 saves and 21 blown saves for 71.2 percent.

• Cubs leadoff hitters managed only a .294 on-base percentage and a .677 OPS. That’s a dramatic shortfall compared with the .331/.765 averages in the NL and the .335/.780 averages in the majors.

Anthony Rizzo had a .510 on-base percentage in limited leadoff duty, and Ben Zobrist was at .368, mostly before his long leave of absence. But Kyle Schwarber, who had a .339 on-base percentage for the season, managed only a .304 at leadoff. And Jason Heyward, who was at .343 overall, was on base at a mere .252 clip when at the top of the order.

Along with improvements in starting pitching and late-inning bullpen performance, leadoff is a spot to watch if a return to the Pythagorean norm is going to be enough to return the Cubs to the postseason in 2020.

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