Sweet: Plouffe analysis of Obama weekend sweep

WASHINGTON–Obama campaign manager David Plouffe crunches numbers in a Sunday memo (at the click) and sees bright prospects for Barack Obama after the Illinois senator won all the weekend contests.

TO: Interested Parties

FR: David Plouffe

RE: Upset in Maine Caps Off Weekend Sweep

DA: February 10, 2008

By the numbers:

Projected pledged delegates won in Maine: Obama 15; Clinton 9

Obamas current lead over Clinton: 84 pledged delegates (a total that increased 57 this weekend)

Pledged delegates: Obama 1030; Clinton 946 (the increase is reflected by gains in Maine and totals that were revised upward from yesterdays results see chart below)

States won: Obama 20; Clinton 11

Primaries won: Obama 9; Clinton 9 (With New Mexico still in question)

Caucuses won: Obama 11; Clinton 2

Today, Obama won an upset victory in Maine, a state where internal and external polls had Clinton leading in the days leading up to the caucuses. Obama is projected to win 15 delegates to Clintons 9, capping off an Obama sweep of this weekends contests.

Barack Obama has won nearly twice as many states as Hillary Clinton. He won a Red State, Purple State, and Blue States this weekend showing he has broad national appeal and can win in every corner of this country. Obama has now won 20 contests to Clintons 11; hes won a larger share of the popular vote; and hes projected to more than triple his current pledged delegate lead since Super Tuesday from 27 pledged delegates to 84, a net gain of 57 pledged delegates.

This weekends net gain of 57 pledged delegates represents more than the 42 delegate net gain that Clinton won in Massachusetts, New Jersey, Tennessee and Arizona combined.

While Obamas victories demonstrate his broad national appeal, he still faces an uphill battle in every upcoming contest because the Clintons are far better known and have a political machine thats been honed over two decades. But the more voters get to know Obama and his message of change, the more they support him, which bodes well for the upcoming primaries.

Obamas victories reflect what a recent Time poll confirmed the other day that he is the candidate best suited to win Independents, play well in Red States, and beat John McCain in November. As the nominee, Obama will also help down-ballot Democrats get elected to Congress across the country, especially in those Red States where Democrats havent fared well for decades. So Obama wont just win an election, hell win a new majority for change, so we can finally solve the problems weve been talking about for decades.

Share of Vote

Pledged Delegates

State

Date

Pledged Delegates

Obama

Clinton

Edwards

Obama

Clinton

Edwards

Iowa

3-Jan

45

38%

29%

30%

16

15

14

nNew Hampshire

8-Jan

22

37%

39%

17%

9

9

4

Nevada

19-Jan

25

45%

51%

4%

13

12

0

South Carolina

26-Jan

45

55%

27%

18%

25

12

8

Alabama

5-Feb

52

56%

42%

1%

27

25

0

Alaska

13

74%

25%

0%

9

4

0

American Samoa

3

43%

57%

0%

1

2

0

Arizona

56

42%

51%

5%

25

31

0

Arkansas

35

27%

70%

2%

8

27

0

California

370

42%

52%

4%

163

207

0

Colorado

55

67%

32%

1%

37

18

0

Connecticut

48

51%

47%

1%

26

22

0

Delaware

15

53%

42%

1%

9

6

0

Georgia

87

67%

31%

2%

60

27

0

Idaho

18

79%

17%

3%

15

3

0

Illinois

153

65%

33%

2%

101

52

0

Kansas

32

74%

26%

0%

23

9

0

Massachusetts

93

41%

56%

2%

38

55

0

Minnesota

72

67%

32%

0%

48

24

0

Missouri

72

49%

48%

2%

36

36

0

N. Jersey

107

44%

54%

1%

48

59

0

New Mexico1

26

48%

49%

1%

12

13

0

New York

232

40%

57%

1%

95

137

0

N. Dakota

13

61%

37%

1%

8

5

0

Oklahoma

38

31%

55%

10%

14

24

0

Tennessee

68

41%

54%

4%

29

39

0

Utah

23

57%

39%

3%

14

9

0

Louisiana

9-Feb

56

57%

36%

0%

34

22

0

Nebraska

24

68%

32%

0%

16

8

0

Virgin Islands

3

92%

8%

0%

3

0

0

Washington

78

68%

31%

0%

53

25

0

Maine2

10-Feb

24

59%

41%

0%

15

9

0

Total

1030

946

26

NOTES:

1. New Mexico results not complete — one delegate remains to be allocated based on final state results

2. Maine results reflect 87% reporting