Michael Madigan’s future is on the brink even without him being charged

There was a time last fall when many of us expected criminal charges were just weeks if not days away against Commonwealth Edison officials in a scheme connected to House Speaker Mike Madigan.

Then came the holidays, followed by the COVID-19 pandemic, and suddenly the world looked different. As the months ticked past, corruption seemed somehow less urgent and the allegations involving ComEd less certain.

Would the feds still move forward with their case involving the powerful speaker?

The affirmative answer came resoundingly out of the clear blue sky of a July morning and reverberated loudly enough to reach a vacationing columnist in the Michigan northwoods.

But a major question remains. If ComEd broke the law, as federal prosecutors now tell us, by “corruptly” making certain inducements “with intent to influence and reward Public Official A,” as Madigan is identified, did Public Official A break the law by being on the receiving end of those favors?

You’d certainly think so, wouldn’t you? If there’s a bribe-payer, there must be a bribe-taker.

But history shows that’s not necessarily so, at least not in the provable-in-a-court-of-law sense. And the one thing we can say for certain is that Madigan wasn’t charged with anything Friday.

So, for now, we await the next moves from 219 S. Dearborn.

Or do we?

The conduct attributed to Public Official A and his associates in the “Statement of Facts” to which ComEd confessed is clearly outrageous.

It’s so outrageous, in fact, that maybe we can seriously entertain the possibility of forcing Madigan to step aside without waiting for charges to be filed against him.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker raised that specter Friday while all but pulling the rug out from under his fellow Democrat, telling reporters: “If these allegations of wrongdoing by the speaker are true, there is no question that he will have betrayed the public trust, and he must resign.”

Pritzker’s statement conveniently left open what he means by proving the allegations are true. Does that require Madigan to be indicted and convicted? Or can we deduce it from the confessions of others?

Heck, if proving it means convicting him, then he would be going to prison, and his resignation would be moot.

Madigan said in a written statement that he has “done nothing criminal or improper.” Nobody expects him to voluntarily relinquish power at this point after guarding it so zealously for so long.

But let’s say the ultimate Madigan defense turns out to be that he was unaware of the activities of lobbyist-confidante Michael McClain and other Madigan associates that form the basis of the charges against ComEd, not that I would ever totally believe that.

That might get him off the hook legally but not politically. Madigan is responsible for this mess, one way or another.

His fellow Democrats, who long ago became accustomed to weathering the storm around Madigan, will have to take it more seriously this time, even in a year in which the overriding political equation will revolve around Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

While I seriously doubt Madigan’s troubles will equate immediately to any major damage to the rest of the Democratic ticket in Illinois, you have to wonder what would happen if Democrats start falling like dominoes around here via indictment.

The furor around Madigan sure won’t help the already-dicey prospects for the constitutional amendment referendum on a progressive income tax. That has to be at the forefront for Pritzker, along with his own continuing tax-related toilet troubles, which remain a subject of interest to federal investigators, as the Sun-Times reported Friday.

Later Friday, the speaker’s office provided the Sun-Times with a copy of a federal subpoena indicating prosecutors have at least another 10 avenues of inquiry involving Madigan. That will intensify the pressure.

Even as things stand, how could House Democrats justify reinstalling Madigan as speaker in January?

Most longtime Madigan observers will tell you he has survived this long by knowing where the legal lines are drawn (he helped draw most of the lines) and stepping right up to them without going over.

But if Madigan ever really believed he was “not the target of anything,” as he proclaimed just last year, the rest of us can now be certain that’s not the case.

McClain, a former ComEd lobbyist, seems to hold the key to proving whether Madigan crossed the line.

If he flips, then the speaker’s reign is over.