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Crystal Ball says Illinois governor's race 'leans Republican'

The polls in the Illinois governor’s race have been all over the place, from a 14-point lead for Rauner, to a “nearly a deadheat.”

But what does the incredibly accurate Sabato’s Crystal Ball, from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, have to say? It says good luck, Gov. Pat Quinn, you’ll need it.

From the Crystal Ball, which revised its predictions today:

“Gov. Pat Quinn (D), barely elected to his first full term in 2010 and hampered by a poor state economy and budget problems, appears to be losing so far to a wealthy Republican, Bruce Rauner. Quinn’s narrow win in 2010 happened in part because his opponent was very conservative, too much so for Illinois even in the midst of a gigantic Republican wave that cycle. However, this time Quinn faces an “outsider” opponent in Rauner, who is promising to clean up the mess in Springfield and who can also self-fund his campaign to a large degree. While this race could well shift again this cycle, we’re now moving it from Toss-up to Leans Republican. We’ve heard a lot of pessimism from Democrats about Quinn’s odds, though they hold out hope that he can pull the rabbit out of a hat once again. He might, but he’s down right now — and facing a better candidate, Rauner, than he did last time. According to Politico’s Kyle Cheney, Quinn would be the first governor from the president’s home state (and of the president’s party) to lose reelection since 1892.”

So why should anyone pay any attention to the Crystal Ball?

Because since its creation in 2004, it claims to have a 99 percent accuracy rate where races for House, Senate, Governor and every state’s Electoral College outcome.

In 2008, it correctly predicted every Senate and gubernatorial race.