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DSCC to Nate Silver: You're not always right

Senate Democrats’ campaign arm is having a bit of an issue with data guru Nate Silver’s prediction that Republicans will take at least six seats in November, giving them control of both houses of Congress.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a memo Monday morning to point out red states where Democrats exceeded expectations.

“Nate Silver and the staff at FiveThirtyEight are doing groundbreaking work, but, as they have noted, they have to base their forecasts on a scarce supply of public polls. In some cases more than half of these polls come from GOP polling outfits,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee executive director Guy Cecil said. “This was one reason why FiveThirtyEight forecasts in North Dakota and Montana were so far off in 2012. In fact, in August of 2012 Silver forecasted a 61% likelihood that Republicans would pick up enough seats to claim the majority. Three months later Democrats went on to win 55 seats.”

h/t: Washington Post