Schneider leads Dold in new Democratic poll of Illinois 10

WASHINGTON—An automated poll by the Democratic House political operation shows Rep. Brad Schneider D-Ill., ahead of former Rep. Bob Dold Ill., by five points.The survey of the north suburban 10^th congressional district in Illinois was conducted in-house by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and found 11 percent undecided.

The poll was taken as some $1.6 million in television and digital spots has been spent by outside groups to bolster Dold, seeking a return to Congress after being narrowly defeated by Schneider in 2012 after serving one term.

In the head-to-head, Schneider was outpacing Dold by 47 percent to 42 per cent.

From a DCCC polling memo…

“Schneider performs especially well among women voters, where he leads by 7 points (47% to 40%) and maintains especially strong personal favorabilities (+20 net positive, 38% favorable, 18% unfavorable). By comparison, women voters’ opinions of Dold are almost evenly divided (36% favorable, 31% unfavorable, 33% unsure).”

Now, some important things you should know about this poll:

The sample demographics: The sample included five percent African American and four percent Hispanic respondents.

The political sample for this poll in this swing district which President Barack Obama carried with 58.3 percent of the vote in 2012: 35 percent Democrat, 29 percent Republican and 36 percent Independent.

The DCCC poll consists of an automated voice reading questions and respondents punching in a reply on the phone keypad. The poll was of landlines only, which means folks with cell phones who do not use line lines could not be contacted.

The DCCC survey was of 450 likely 2014 general election voters and was conducted Sept. 3. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.6 percent.

I did not see the entire poll. A polling memo with a summary was shared with me. Campaigns and special interests release information about polls only when it is in their interest.