1st-and-10: Packers demise could fuel Bears revival

Bears win. Packers lose.

That’s a glorious weekend for Bears fans at any point of any season. But this time it carried potential long-term implications that provided hope that the joy might not be as fleeting as it normally is.

The Bears’ 33-14 upset of the Patriots at Gillette Stadium was the best indication yet that the Bears are at least headed in the right direction under Matt Eberflus. The Bears scored 33 points against a team that was tied for seventh in scoring defense. They rushed for 243 yards against a team that had shut down Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt the previous week.

They won both sides of the line of scrimmage. They withstood a Bailey Zappe-fueled momentum shift on the road. They shut out the Patriots in the second half — only the eighth time that’s happened to the Patriots at home in the last 20 seasons. (And only the third time in 40 games since Tom Brady left.)

But the Packers’ 23-21 loss to the Commanders at FedEx Field also breathed hope into the Bears’ rebuilding effort under general manager Ryan Poles and Eberflus — the best indication yet that a Packers demise might open a window to contention in the NFC North and the NFC.

Anticipating the Packers’ downfall has been a fool’s errand throughout the Aaron Rodgers era. But the warning signs are a little more significant this time. It was the Packers’ third consecutive loss and dropped them to 3-4 — their worst record after seven games since 2006.

The Packers have lost more regular-games with Rodgers at quarterback already this season (four) than they have in any full season under Matt LaFleur (three). The Packers are averaging 18.3 points a game — their lowest seven-game scoring average since 1993 (12.9).

Rodgers famously told fans to R-E-L-A-X after a 1-2 start in 2014 — and the Packers ended up 12-4. But this time, his admonishments are more like all the struggling teams trying to catch the Packers — chiding Jaire Alexander and other teammates for a negative attitude after losing to the Giants; suggesting that LaFleur “simplify things” for the offense after losing to the Jets; and calling for unproductive players to be benched after losing to the Commanders.

It remains to be seen if the Packers fall is real. Especially with Rodgers, they can be a beneficiary of NFL parity as much as a victim of it.

But don’t discount the role that their demise plays in the Bears’ rebuild. Most of the Bears’ best surges have coincided with the Packers being down — the 1977 and 1979 playoff appearances; the entire Ditka era; the Super Bowl appearance in 2006 under Lovie Smith; Nagy’s 12-4 debut season in 2018.

Timing is everything — when Ryan Pace arrived, Rodgers was 31. When Poles was hired, Rodgers was 38. We’re already seeing the difference. If the Packers indeed are headed for a fall, everyone at Halas Hall just got a little better at his job.

2. Roquan Smith was so overcome with emotion Wednesday when he was asked about the Bears trading Robert Quinn to the Eagles that he literally could not respond — a poignant and fitting tribute to the impact Quinn had as a respected leader on the team in less than three seasons with the Bears.

The soft-spoken Quinn was the consummate pro. Though he is uncom-fortable in the spotlight, he never bristled at questions during his disappointing two-sack season in 2020. And he responded with 18.5 sacks last season to break Hall of Fame Richard Dent’s franchise record.

When Quinn won the media “Good Guy” Award last year, it really was recognition of the way he handled the difficult season more than the record-setting one.

But he was ill-fitted for the Bears’ rebuild — on the field, anyway — and his departure is no surprise. Talk about a win-win — it gives the Bears draft capital and more room to develop their young pass rushers; and it gives Robert Quinn a chance to win the Super Bowl with the unbeaten Eagles. Even Quinn’s crestfallen teammates have to be happy about that.

3. The Bears traditionally — or perhaps chronically — have had their most potent offensive performances against weaker defenses. But they scored 33 points against a Patriots defense that came in tied for seventh in points allowed (18.8 per game).

If the Patriots finish in the top 10, it would be the Bears’ highest offensive output against a top-10 scoring defense since they scored 38 against the sixth-ranked Jets in 2010 at Soldier Field.

4. The Bears pitched a second-half shutout against a Patriots offense that came in ranked sixth in the NFL in second-half scoring (13.7 points per game).

The Bears have allowed 35 second-half points (5.0 per game) this season — third-best in the NFL. In the last 80 years, the only seasons when they allowed fewer second-half points through seven games were in 1985 (28) and 1963 (34). Both of those teams won the NFL championship.

5. The Bears’ defense has allowed 474 yards in its last two games (214 vs. the Commanders; 260 vs. the Patriots). That’s the fewest in back-to-back games since 2018 (471) against the Jets (207) and Bills (264).

But the Bears’ defense still has not stopped the two best quarterbacks it has faced — Aaron Rodgers (131.1 rating) and Kirk Cousins (296 yards, 94.7 rating). So the Bears will be tested against the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott (113.2 rating vs. the Lions) and the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa (105.9 rating this season).

6. Two good calls by Eberflus this week: Calling out defensive tackle Mike Pennel for his blindside block on Patriots center David Andrews on Roquan Smith’s interception (“Totally in the wrong. He should not do that. And I told him right afterward. And that’s not what we teach. It’s not good football.”)

And taking a knee at the 2-yard line instead of hanging 40 on Bill Belichick, which Monday Night Football “Manning-cast” analyst Peyton Manning was calling for. (“Just respect for the game,” Eberflus said.)

7. The Gould Standard: Cairo Santos, who won the NFC Special Teams Player of the Week Award after going 4-for-4 on field goals against the Patriots, is 67-of-73 (91.8%) in his second stint with the Bears — including 6-of-8 (75%) on kicks between 50-55 yards.

The turnaround in the Bears’ place-kicking fortunes since they cut Robbie Gould in 2016 has been remarkable. From 2016-18, the Bears were 20 percentage points behind Gould (96.5%-76.0%). Since then — with Eddy Pineiro, Santos and Michael Badgley making 94-of-105 field-goal attempts (89.5%), they’ve cut the gap to four points (87.9%-83.9%).

8. Quentin Johnston Watch: The 6-4, 215-pound Texas Christian junior had just four receptions against Kansas State, but still came up big in the clutch. His 55-yard touchdown catch from Max Duggan late in the third quarter gave the Horned Frogs (7-0) a 31-28 lead they would not lose.

Johnston has 38 receptions for 574 yards (15.1 avg.) and three touchdowns in seven games.

9. Josh McCown Ex-Bears Player of the Week: Saints wide receiver Kevin White, the star-crossed former first-round draft pick (seventh overall) had a 64-yard reception from ex-Bear Andy Dalton in a 42-34 loss to the Cardinals.

Special mention to Seahawks wide receiver Marquise Goodwin, who had four receptions for 67 yards and two touchdowns in a 37-23 victory over the Chargers; and Falcons wide receiver Damiere Byrd, who had a 75-yard touchdown reception in a 36-17 loss to the Bengals.

10. Bear-ometer: 7-10 — at Cowboys (L); vs. Dolphins (L); vs. Lions (W); at Falcons (L); at NY Jets (L); vs. Packers (W); vs. Eagles (L); vs. Bills (L); at Lions (W); vs. Vikings (W).