Advanced stats for Blackhawks defensemen underscore problems, hint at hope

It doesn’t take an expert to know that the Blackhawks’ defense hasn’t been good enough. They’re 30th in the NHL in goals allowed, 30th on the penalty kill and 31st in expected goals allowed. New coaches, tweaked systems and different personnel haven’t done much to stem the flow.

None of this will likely be fixed quickly, or by the same group of players that’s on the roster. The Blackhawks seem aware that their path to a strong defense again goes through the successful drafting and development of players like Henri Jokiharju and Adam Boqvist.

However, there’s still the matter of evaluating the defensemen already on the roster, most of whom are signed through next season or beyond. Thankfully, we have new 2018-19 data gathered by Corey Sznajder and recently published on Tableau by C.J. Turtoro, that allows us to dig deeper into the trends surrounding the Hawks’ most-used defensemen: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Erik Gustafsson and Jokiharju.

While it’s admittedly a small sample size — 10 or 11 games for each player — due to the labor necessary in tracking detailed play-by-play for games, the data helps reinforce some things you might’ve recognized watching Hawks games yourself. Here’s a breakdown in a few key areas:

Entry defense

One of the most important areas for a defenseman is his ability to “protect” the blue line from opposing onrushes. The best defensemen thrive at breaking up those opportunities through positioning and timing. However, this is an area where the Blackhawks have struggled badly.

In the graphic above, entry defense is broken up by outcome: blue is a successful breakup, purple is a dump-in, light red is a carry-in and dark red is a pass. Only Jokiharju, who ranks 30th out of 103 recorded defenders at 11.7 percent, is breaking up entries at a significant rate. Gustafsson, meanwhile, failed to record a single successful breakup in over 200 minutes of recorded data, the only player in the field to do so.

The Hawks defense’s inability to effectively defend zone entries at the blue line is a core part of why they find themselves stuck in their own end so often. Consider the same chart for the top five defenders of the Hurricanes, who boast one of the most talented defenses in the league:

There’s a lot more blue (i.e. good) on that graph.

Exiting the zone

You can’t always stop teams from entering the offensive zone, so another crucial skill for defensemen is the ability to move the puck up the ice upon re-acquiring it. This is another area where Jokiharju has performed well: He’s ranked 24th out of 103 qualified defenders in success rate for exiting the zone, sandwiched between P.K. Subban and Morgan Rielly.

None of the four Hawks are ranked lower than 70th in this area, so it’s not quite as dire as their entry defense, but Seabrook’s tendency to dump or clear the puck in order to exit the zone exacerbates his own problems. The veteran defenseman ranks fourth (out of 103) in zone exit attempts per 60 minutes and 10th in successful exits per 60 minutes, but he’s just 62nd when it comes to exiting the zone with possession.

It’s a bad cycle – get beat at the blue line, win the puck, give it back by dumping it, repeat – that helps explain why the Hawks get pinned in so often with Seabrook on the ice.

Entering the zone

Defensemen don’t play as important a role in entering the offensive zone as they do in clearing the defensive zone, but it’s still an area where they can make an impact. In the chart below, we’re looking at zone entry outcomes: dark blue is an entry pass, light blue is a carry-in, yellow is a dump-in pass and red is a failed entry.

Gustafsson and Keith stand out for their higher entry rates, but you’ll also notice that they commit a lot more mistakes. Seabrook doesn’t push play up the ice much anymore. Jokiharju again impresses for such a young player: He doesn’t create zone entries himself very often, instead preferring low-risk dump-in plays, but he also never turns the puck over in the neutral zone. It’ll be interesting to see how the 19-year-old evolves his game as he gets older.