Some things you think, some things you’re not sure of and some things you know for certain.
I know most of the fantasy universe didn’t benefit from Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson’s epic game in Week 4, when he led his position with 33.7 basic PPR points. He was owned in about half of ESPN leagues and started in only 11.6 percent.
With the bye weeks upon us, both percentages are sure to skyrocket, but don’t put all your eggs in Watson’s basket. He exploited the 32nd– (Patriots) and 28th-ranked (Titans) pass defenses the last two weeks. The rookie looked fantastic, but he won’t always have it so easy.
Next up for him are the Chiefs, who, even without safety Eric Berry, have a completion percentage against of 51.4, lowest in the league. Watson also has road games against the Seahawks, who rank fourth in pass defense, the Rams, who are tied with the third-most sacks, and the Ravens, who have a league-high nine picks.
Clearly, Watson has a high ceiling, and his mobility is a huge plus. But until we see him get the better of a better defense, lower expectations in tougher matchups. He’ll have some more favorable ones, too, against the Browns, Colts and Titans again.
I’m not sure what the Vikings will get from Latavius Murray, who takes over as the lead back with Dalvin Cook (knee) out for the year. Murray said his ankle, which underwent offseason surgery, isn’t 100 percent but he expects to be able to carry the load.
Murray is in position to succeed. With the Raiders, he had a Pro Bowl season in 2015 and ran for 12 touchdowns last season. He’ll have the benefit of a strong offensive line and little competition from Jerick McKinnon.
But Murray is nowhere near the playmaker Cook is, and you have to be concerned about the quarterback position if Case Keenum continues to fill in for Sam Bradford. Consider Murray a low-end RB2 thanks to the volume he’ll have.
I think Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant is about to go on a run. After four difficult cornerback matchups that have dropped him to 23rd in basic PPR points at his position, his competition takes a step down.
This week, he figures to see Packers rookie Kevin King, whom A.J. Green dominated in Week 3. After the bye, he’ll face the 49ers’ 22nd-ranked pass defense and a Redskins unit that might be without Josh Norman (ribs).
Even against stiff competition, Bryant has been targeted 40 times, fourth-most in the league. But he has only 16 catches, so with the better matchups, expect better efficiency between Bryant and quarterback Dak Prescott.
Follow me on Twitter @JeffreyA22.
WEEK 5 OUTLOOK
Byes: Falcons, Broncos, Saints, Redskins.
Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston: After a fantastic showing against a tough Giants defense, he gets the Patriots, who have allowed the most points to quarterbacks.
49ers RB Carlos Hyde: A sore hip hasn’t stopped him from being a workhorse. He’s a strong play against the Colts, who have allowed the 11th-most points to RBs.
Packers WR Randall Cobb: With Davante Adams (concussion) uncertain, Cobb could see more action against the Cowboys, who have allowed the eighth-most points to WRs.
Panthers QB Cam Newton: Don’t forget the three games before Newton destroyed the Patriots. Next, he visits the Lions, who have allowed the fourth-fewest points to QBs.
Bears RB Jordan Howard: The Vikings have allowed 3.1 yards per carry and one touchdown run. They’ve given up the second-fewest points to RBs.
Raiders WR Amari Cooper: His drops have been bad enough. Now he has EJ Manuel at quarterback against a Ravens defense allowing the fourth-fewest points to WRs.
WEEK 4 PICKS
Carson Palmer: 357 yards, TD, INT
Jay Ajayi: 12 carries, 46 yards
Keenan Allen: 5 catches, 138 yards
Ben Roethlisberger: 216 yards, TD, INT
Lamar Miller: 131 total yards, 2 TDs
Tyreek Hill: 5 catches, 35 yards