NFL cheat sheet: Here’s who to watch and why in Week 12

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Understanding that 27 carries a game is way too dangerous for an NFL quarterback, Jackson may do things differently in his second NFL start Sunday, Nov. 25. | Nick Wass/Associated Press

GIANTS at EAGLES

Time: Noon.

Line: Eagles by 5½. Total: 46½.

Records (overall/ATS): Giants 3-7/4-5-1; Eagles 4-6/3-7.

Outlook: The Eagles won the first match-up 34-13 at the Meadowlands, but this one is anything but a sure thing. The Eagles have the post-Super Bowl blues — they have yet to win back-to-back games and have lost their last two by a combined 75-27 to the Cowboys and Saints. The Giants are 4-1 ATS on the road .

Pick: Eagles 26, Giants 20.

49ERS at BUCCANEERS

Time: Noon.

Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 54½.

Records (overall/ATS): 49ers 2-8/3-7; Buccaneers 3-7/3-6-1.

Outlook: Two teams with quarterback issues. The Buccaneers’ revolving door continues to spin, with Jameis Winston starting in place of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who replaced Winston after Winston replaced Fitzpatrick after Fitzpatrick replaced Winston. Only the first change — forced by Winston’s NFL suspension — has worked. Niners coming off a bye,

Pick: Buccaneers 31, 49ers 20.

PATRIOTS at JETS

Time: Noon.

Line: Patriots by 9½. Total: 46.

Records (overall/ATS): Patriots 7-3/6-4; Jets 3-7/3-7.

Outlook: Patriots are coming off a 34-10 loss to the Titans and former Patriot Mike Vrabel. They usually respond well — though after losing to the Jaguars 31-20 in Week 2, they also lost to the Lions and Matt Patricia 26-10 the following week. Patriots also coming off a bye. They are 13-5 SU/9-8-1 ATS off a bye under Bill Belichick.

Pick: Patriots 27, Jets 7.

JAGUARS at BILLS

Time: Noon.

Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 37.

Records (overall/ATS): Jaguars 3-7/3-5-2; Bills 3-7/4-6.

Outlook: Believe it or not, this was a playoff game last year. Now both teams are struggling, with Doug Marrone’s job possibly on the line down the stretch. Jaguars have lost six straight, but the last three by 6, 3 and 4 points. Rookie QB Josh Allen expected to start for the Bills.

Pick: Jaguars 17, Bills 13.

CARDINALS at CHARGERS

Time: 3:05 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 12½. Total: 44½.

Records (overall/ATS): Cardinals 2-8/5-4-1; Chargers 7-3/5-5.

Outlook: Both teams are coming off frustrating losses last week on a FG at the horn — the Cardinals lost to the Raiders 23-21; the Chargers lost to the Broncos 23-22. Chargers run-pass combo with Melvin Gordon (143 carries, 741 yards, 5.2 avg., 7 TDs) and Philip Rivers (23 TDs, 6 INTs, 112.1 rating) that will pose problems.

Pick: Chargers 31, Cardinals 17.

STEELERS at BRONCOS

Time: 3:25 p.m.

Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 47.

Records (overall/ATS): Steelers 7-2-1/6-3-1; Broncos 4-6/4-5-1.

Outlook: Steelers rallied from a 16-0 deficit to beat the Jaguars 20-16 last week. Broncos rallied from a 19-7 deficit to beat the Chargers 23-22 on a last-second field goal. Steelers have won six straight (5-0-1 ATS) and are 4-0 ATS on the road this season. But the Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five (2-3 SU) and have played good teams tough.

Pick: Steelers 24, Broncos 20.

PACKERS at VIKINGS

Time: 8:20 p.m., Ch. 5.

Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 47½.

Records (overall/ATS): Packers 4-5-1/4-5-1; Vikings 5-4-1/5-4-1.

Outlook: Packers nearing tilt with three losses in their last four games and Mike McCarthy fielding questions about his job security. Even more troubling: Aaron Rodgers doesn’t seem like an antidote. He has 12 TDs and 0 INTs with a 105.5 rating in his last six games — and the Packers are 2-4.

Pick: Packers 27, Vikings 26.

TITANS at TEXANS

Time: 7:15 p.m., Mon., ESPN.

Line: Texans by 6. Total: 41.

Records (overall/ATS): Titans 5-5/6-4; Texans 7-3/4-6.

Outlook: Titans facing the wrong team at the wrong time. Texans have won seven straight after an 0-3 start and had five sacks against the Redskins last week. Marcus Mariota banged up again after getting sacked four times in the first half last week vs. the Colts. Blaine Gabbert could start.

Pick: Texans 23, Titans 6.

BEST BET

RAIDERS at RAVENS

Time: Noon.

Line: Ravens by 10½. Total: 43.

Records (Overall/ATS): Raiders 2-8/3-7; Ravens 5-5/4-6.

Outlook: Mitch Trubisky leads all NFL quarterbacks in rushing yardage this season — 363 yards and three touchdowns on 51 carries — but not for long at the rate Lamar Jackson is going.

The Ravens’ rookie quarterback, was better with his legs than his arm in his first start in the NFL last week against the Bengals. On mostly designed runs, Jackson had 27 carries for 117 yards and a touchdown in a 24-21 victory.

Jackson’s rushing total was the sixth-highest for a quarterback in the last 10 years. And like Vick, he he was much better running than he was passing. Jackson completed 13-of-19 passes for 150 yards, no touchdowns and on interception for a 70.1 rating.

With the rare exception of Vick, that disparity is likely to be unsustainable in the NFL.

“Quarterbacks don’t run forever in the NFL,” Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said. “Sooner or later, they get hurt, and they don’t run the same.”

Jackson didn’t have to look too far to see the risk. Robert Griffin III made his debut with the Ravens on Sunday — as a wide receiver. Griffin’s impressive 2012 rookie season with the Redskins — he had a 102.4 passer rating and rushed for 815 yards and seven touchdowns (including 138 yards on 13 carries in a victory over the Vikings) — also was the beginning of his demise when he suffered a knee injury on a scramble against the Ravens. As the hits and injuries added up, Griffin’s career quickly faded.

But for now, it’s all good.

Pick: Ravens 27, Raiders 13.

EXPERT PREDICTIONS

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TOP PLAYS

SEAHAWKS at PANTHERS

Time: Noon.

Line: Panthers by 3½. Total: 47½.

Records (overall/ATS): Seahawks 5-5/5-3-2; Panthers 6-4/5-5-2.

Outlook: Panthers are smarting after a 20-19 loss to the Lions at Ford Field when Ron Rivera — the Riverboat Gambler —went for a two-point conversion for the lead with 1:07 left and failed. They figure to respond in a big way, especially at home, where they have won 10 straight (8-2 ATS), averaging 31.6 points in five home games this season.

Pick: Panthers 28, Seahawks 20.

BROWNS at BENGALS

Time: Noon.

Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 47½.

Records (overall/ATS): Browns 3-6-1/6-4; Bengals 5-5/5-5.

Outlook: Bengals have lost four of their last five, including back-to-back losses to the Saints (51-14) and Ravens (24-21) without A.J. Green. But they’ve owned this series in recent years — 7-0 SU/ATS since the second game of the 2014 season. Browns, coming off a bye, are 0-4 on the road this season (2-2 ATS).

Pick: Bengals 33, Browns 17.

DOLPHINS at COLTS

Time: 3:25 p.m.

Line: Colts by 7½. Total: 51.

Records (overall/ATS): Dolphins 5-5/5-5; Colts 5-5/5-4-1.

Outlook: Colts have won four straight (3-0-1 ATS) behind QB Andrew Luck has a 135.2 passer rating (13 TDs, 1 INT) in that streak. Luck has not been sacked in his last five games. Center Ryan Kelly is out with a sprained MCL, but Luck should be able to work around that. Dolphins coming off a bye.

Pick: Colts 34, Dolphins 23.

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