NFL cheat sheet: Here’s who to watch and why in Week 11

VIKINGS at BEARS

Time: 7:20 p.m., Ch. 5.

Line: Bears by 2½. Total: 45.

Records (overall/ATS): Vikings 5-3/5-3; Bears 6-3/6-3.

Outlook: The Bears need this one, because they know they’ll have a tough time beating the Lions on all-time short rest — just 85 hours between kickoffs. That ‘motivation factor’ seems shaky, but might have legs: Since 2014, teams traveling for Thanksgiving Day games are 11-1 SU/12-0 ATS the previous Sunday.

Pick: Bears 20, Vikings 17 (OT).

COWBOYS at FALCONS

Time: Noon.

Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 48½.

Records (overall/ATS): Cowboys 4-5/4-5; Falcons 4-5/3-6.

Outlook: Two of the most skittish teams in the NFL here. The Cowboys have yet to win consecutive games this season. They’re 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS after a victory — losing to the Seahawks (24-13), Texans (19-16) and Titans (28-14), all on the road. Off a three-game winning streak, the Falcons fell flat in Cleveland last week, losing to the Browns, 28-16,

Pick: Falcons 31, Cowboys 27.

TEXANS at REDSKINS

Time: Noon.

Line: Texans by 3. Total: 42½.

Records (overall/ATS): Texans 6-3/4-5; Redskins 6-3/6-3.

Outlook: Texans have won six straight games, but none of them against a team currently with a winning record — the Colts (4-5), Cowboys (4-5), Bills (3-7), Jaguars (3-6), Dolphins (5-5) and Broncos (3-6). Texans also are coming off a bye, though — they’re 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS after a bye under Bill O’Brien.

Pick: Texans 17, Redskins 16.

PANTHERS at LIONS

Time: Noon.

Line: Panthers by 4. Total: 51.

Records (overall/ATS): Panthers 6-3/5-4; Lions 3-6/5-4.

Outlook: Panthers are on long rest after losing to the Steelers 52-21 on Nov. 8. They are 2-0 SU/2-0 ATS after a loss this season — beating the Bengals (31-21) and Eagles (21-17). Lions have lost three straight and are coming off a loss to the Bears, but could get Pro Bowl CB Darius Slay back,

Pick: Lions 27, Panthers 24.

BRONCOS at CHARGERS

Time: 3:05 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 7. Total: 46½.

Records (overall/ATS): Broncos 3-6/3-5-1; Chargers 7-2/5-4.

Outlook: Broncos are coming off a bye, but might be facing the wrong team at the wrong time. Chargers have won six straight (4-2 ATS) and could get a boost from the return of Pro Bowl DE Joey Bosa, who suffered a bone bruise on Aug. 7. Broncos have lost their last seven AFC West road games (1-6 ATS), though they did cover in a 30-23 loss to the Chiefs in Week 8.

Pick: Chargers 26, Broncos 20.

RAIDERS at CARDINALS

Time: 3:05 p.m.

Line: Cardinals by 5. Total: 40½.

Records (overall/ATS): Raiders 1-8/2-7; Cardinals 2-7/5-3-1.

Outlook: The Raiders only victory this season is vs. the Browns (45-42), when Marshawn Lynch rushed for 130 yards and Amari Cooper had 128 receiving yards and a TD. Lynch is on injured reserve and Cooper is on the Cowboys. Cardinals have been better lately — within a TD of the Chiefs in the fourth quarter last week.

Pick: Cardinals 19, Raiders 17.

EAGLES at SAINTS

Time: 3:25 p.m.

Line: Saints by 8. Total: 56.

Records (overall/ATS): Eagles 4-5/3-6; Saints 8-1/7-2.

Outlook: Drew Brees is having an MVP season — on a pace for 4,624 yards, 37 TDs and 2 INTs with a 123.8 passer rating. Saints have scored 40 or more points five times this season. Eagles defense has fallen from fourth in the NFL last year to 16th this season.

Pick: Saints 34, Eagles 24.

CHIEFS at RAMS

Time: 7:15 p.m., Mon., ESPN.

Line: Rams by 3½. Total: 63.

Records (overall/ATS): Chiefs 9-1/8-2; Rams 9-1/4-6.

Outlook: The marquee, prime-time matchup of the season is expected to be a shootout. But don’t be surprised if it’s not. Both teams are capable defensively. Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games and are without injured WR Cooper Kupp. Chiefs are 1-2 ATS in their last three games and are playing for the 11th consecutive week.

Pick: Chiefs 27, Rams 24.

BEST BET

TITANS at COLTS

Time: Noon.

Line: Colts by 2. Total: 48½.

Records (Overall/ATS): Titans 5-4/6-3; Colts 4-5/4-4-1.

Outlook: The Titans are on a high after a convincing victory over the Patriots last week. That’s their biggest problem this week.

Beating the Patriots — especially as soundly as the Titans did in a 34-10 victory at Nissan Stadium — is a monumental achievement for team like the Titans. It had to be emotional for coach Mike Vrabel, a former Patriot.

No doubt he had his team stoked for that game — they returned the opening kickoff 58 yards and scored touchdowns on their first two possession. They led 17-3 in the first quarter and 24-10 at halftime. They sacked Tom Brady three times and held him to his lowest passer rating (70.6) in seven games.

Now comes the tough part — avoiding a letdown while coming off an obvious emotional high. It’s not easy. After the Jaguars beat the Patriots 31-20 in Week 2, they lost to the Titans 9-6 the following week. And this year’s Titans have already been this way before. After beating the defending Super Bowl champion Eagls 26-23 in Week 4, the lost to the Bills 13-12 the following week.

The Titans’ upset of the Patriots last week sets them up for a fall against the upstart Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday. The Colts have won three straight after a 1-5 start. Andrew Luck has a 131.0 passer rating in the three victories (10 touchdowns, one interception) — and he hasnt’ been sacked Week 5 — a span of 185 pass attempts. And for what it’s worth, Luck is 9-0 SU/8-1 ATS in his career against the Titans.

Pick: Colts 27, Titans 13.

EXPERT PREDICTIONS

TOP PLAYS

STEELERS at JAGUARS

Time: Noon.

Line: Steelers by 5½. Total: 47.

Records (overall/ATS): Steelers 6-2-1/6-3; Jaguars 3-6/3-5-1.

Outlook: With five straight victories (by 24, 7, 15, 7 and 31 points), the Steelers are on a typical mid-season roll under Mike Tomlin — they are 33-8 (.805) in the second half of the season over the last six years, best mark in the NFL. Steelers also have the revenge factor, after the Jaguars beat them in the playoffs last year.

Pick: Steelers 30, Jaguars 13.

BUCCANEERS at GIANTS

Time: Noon.

Line: Giants by 1½. Total: 24.

Records (overall/ATS): Buccaneers 3-6/3-6; Giants 2-7/4-5.

Outlook: Bucs are mired in a little difficulty, with six losses in their last seven games. After scoring 48 points with Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1, the Bucs scored three in a loss to the Redskins last week, but are sticking with Fitzpatrick here. Giants snapped a fiv-game losing streak vs. the 49ers on MNF.

Pick: Giants 27, Bucs 14.

BENGALS at RAVENS

Time: Noon.

Line: Ravens by 3½. Total: OFF.

Records (overall/ATS): Bengals 5-4/4-5; Ravens 4-5/4-5.

Outlook: Ravens have lost their last three and four of five, but are coming off a bye — they’re 8-2 SU/ATS off a bye under John Harbaugh. Lamar Jackson could start for a banged-up Joe Flacco — that might not be a bad thing. The Bengals are without injured WR A.J. Green, which makes a huge difference for Andy Dalton.

Pick: Ravens 24, Bengals 14.