Difference in run differential from 2021 tells story of White Sox’ sorry season

A 76-77 record and early elimination from the American League Central race is not where the White Sox expected to be this season, but it’s the record they’ve earned by the numbers.

With 659 runs scored and 680 runs allowed, the Sox have a projected Pythagorean record of 74-79 under the formula of runs squared divided by (runs squared plus runs allowed squared) equals winning percentage.

That the Sox have won two more games than the formula suggests is within normal probability. It also reflects their 24-16 record in one-run games. The Sox have won more than their normal share of close ones.

When the Sox went 93-69 to win the AL Central last season, they scored 796 runs and allowed 636. That’s 137 more runs scored and 44 fewer allowed than they have to date this season.

The Sox’ 3.73 ERA last season was second in the AL and fifth in the majors. Their 3.90 ERA this season is seventh in the AL and 14th in the majors. That’s despite a big season from Dylan Cease, whose 2.06 ERA is second in the majors to Justin Verlander’s 1.82.

The loss of Carlos Rodon to free agency, having Lance Lynn’s season limited by an early injury and having Lucas Giolito’s ERA balloon from 3.53 to 5.05 haven’t helped. Rodon has a 13-8 record and 2.98 for the Giants.

But the pitching challenges have been outweighed by the more severe decline on offense, where fewer home runs and fewer baserunners have brought on a big chill.

The Sox have suffered a power outage, with 144 homers so far this season after hitting 190 in 2021. Yasmani Grandal has had the largest drop, going from 23 homers in 375 plate appearances last season to five in 358 plate appearances so far in 2022.

Jose Abreu is down from 30 to 15. Tim Anderson slugged 17 last season but, limited by injuries to 351 plate appearances, has hit only six in 2022.

The number of homers in the majors is down from 1.22 per team per game last season to 1.04 this season. The Sox’ drop has been bigger, from 1.17 per game to .94.

A dip from the power decline has been compounded by a lack of baserunners. Fans objected vehemently on Twitter earlier this season, pointing out the Sox’ high batting average. Their .259 average ranks second in the majors to the Blue Jays’ .261.

But the Sox have taken a hard fall in walks. Their 586 walks last season were tied for fourth in the majors; their 376 this season rank 29th — next-to-last.

Grandal’s 87 walks in 2021 have declined to 44 in 2022. Yoan Moncada, an offensive contributor last season at .263/.375/.412 for a .787 OPS, has plummeted to .211/.275/.355 for .630. Part of that is a drop from 84 walks to 31.

The Sox’ on-base percentage has tumbled from .336 in 2021 to .314 this season. Last season, their hits, walks and hit batters totaled 2,037. This season, the total is 1,821. A couple of hundred fewer runners to go with a home-run drop will stall an offense.