The latest forecast from FiveThirtyEigtht’s Nate Silver gives Republicans the edge over Democrats when it comes to controlling the Senate after the November elections.
“Summing the probabilities of each race yields an estimate of 51 seats for Republicans,” Silver writes. “That makes them very slight favorites — perhaps somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-40 — to take control of the Senate, but also doesn’t leave them much room for error.”
While the overall forecast hasn’t changed much June or March, Silver does point out the GOP’s chances have improved in some states, such as Montana, Mississippi and Georgia.
Where Illinois is concerned, Silver has Sen. Dick Durbin (D) with a 95 percent chance of beating Republican challenger Jim Oberweis.
