Not Jet, but expected: Vegas odds assume QB Rodgers moves east

Bet on it: Sportsbooks for upcoming NFL season are incorporating a Rodgers move to New York

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Aaron Rodgers

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers says his intention is to play for the New York Jets in the coming season as the four-time NFL MVP quarterback waits for Green Bay to trade him.

Jeffrey Phelps/AP

LAS VEGAS — Jay Kornegay hasn’t just casually observed the ongoing “As Aaron’s World Turns” soap opera of diva quarterback Aaron Rodgers, which appears bound for Broadway.

Two years ago, the executive vice president of the Westgate SuperBook bought into, at competitors’ shops, Rodgers becoming a Bronco.

“I pretty much emptied out my phone accounts, thinking he was going to Denver,” Kornegay said of his sportsbook accounts. “That’s how much I believed in the guy.

“He could turn a franchise — a mediocre team with a pretty decent defense and some weapons on offense — into a contender. I still believe in the diva despite his antics off the field and some of the crazy, off-the-wall things he’s done.”

The petulant thespian remained in Green Bay. The Broncos wound up with Russell Wilson, another juvenile melodrama.

“We have our own problems in Denver,” Kornegay said, laughing. “We’ve got a diva, too. I’m so glad that [new coach] Sean Payton is there because he won’t put up with that BS.”

SI.com predicted a Packers-Jets deal being consummated after the first round of the NFL Draft on Thursday, April 27, in Kansas City, Missouri, and before the second round starts on Friday. FS1 reported that the 49ers remain interested in Rodgers.

“It looks like the Packers and Jets are negotiating through the media,” Kornegay said. “Little leaks get out that I think both sides want to get out because both are trying to improve their position. Neither wants to give up more than they need to.

“That makes sense to me.”

LEVERAGE

Green Bay’s SuperBook odds to win Super Bowl LVIII have ballooned from 30-1 to 50-1 since Jan. 23; the Jets’ have been sliced from 40-1 to 12-1.

The shifts are connected despite a trade that not only hasn’t occurred but isn’t expected in the near future.

“No doubt,” Kornegay said, “that those odds are incorporating a Rodgers move specifically to the Jets. The world knows this, even though it hasn’t been made official and there being a chance it might not happen.

“But, as you can imagine, we’re taking money on the Jets.”

The Packers’ odds of winning the NFC have swelled from 10-1 to 22-1; the Jets’ odds of taking the AFC have been chopped from 45-2 to 7-1.

At Circa Sports, a Green Bay crown is 35-1 (risk $100 to win $3,500) on Yes and -6000 (bet $6,000 to win $100) on No; winning the NFC is 15-1 on Yes, -2600 on No.

The Jets winning the Super Bowl is 14-1 on Yes, -2400 on No; the AFC +750 on Yes, -1140 on No.

(Odds and prices are subject to change.)

With the 13th overall pick in the first round and the 42nd and 43rd overall selections in the second, the Jets have the collateral to obtain Rodgers. They obtained Packers free-agent wide receiver Allen Lazard, too, to appease Rodgers.

Negotiations continue, Green Bay likely wanting more from New York than the Jets, so far, have been willing to give.

“I certainly anticipate this chess match to go all the way to draft day,” Kornegay said. “That’s what I would do if I were holding the cards. I’d hold out till I get what I want.”

BE CAREFUL . . .

The rest of the NFC North must be salivating to see Green Bay unveil only its third different starting quarterback since 1992.

“That’s crazy,” Kornegay said.

Brett Favre and Rodgers are a combined 89-41-1 against the division.

From 1968 through ’91, the Packers had only three full winning seasons while employing no fewer than 10 quarterbacks.

DraftKings posted projected victory totals recently that reflect a shift in the black-and-blue division. The Lions top that chart at 9.5 wins, -150 over, +130 under. So money favors Detroit winning at least 10 games.

Kornegay praised Jared Goff, whose 99.3 passer rating ranked third in the NFC last year, for his professionalism after being traded from the Rams to Detroit in March 2021.

Next is the Vikings’ 8.5 (over -130, under +110), the Bears’ 7.5 (over -120, under +100) and the Packers’ 7.5 (over +120, under -150).

Those prices suggest the Bears will win at least eight games, the Packers fewer than seven. Last season, 8-9 Green Bay finished third in the North, and the 3-14 Bears ended in the basement.

The SuperBook releases point spreads on every NFL game by early June. How many times a team is favored can portend how it might fare in a coming season.

Without analyzing the Bears’ slate, Kornegay predicted they’d be favored in six or seven games, most by a point or two. He recognized that their title-winning odds have been whittled from 100-1 to 40-1.

“There are some Bears believers,” he said of one of the NFL’s more public-wagering teams. “But getting out of the cellar and into the basement isn’t a big move.

“The Bears might show some promise to compete for the division, but it’s hard to visualize it going beyond that.”

Ditto for Green Bay. In 2020, it drafted 6-4, 220-pound quarterback Jordan Love out of Utah State. In 10 appearances, he has completed 50 of 83 passes for three touchdowns with three interceptions.

“I can see where Packers fans would be frustrated with Rodgers,” Kornegay said. “It’s like a marriage on the rocks: You don’t want to be here? Then we don’t want you. Fine.

“But, man, be careful what you wish for.”

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