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Nate Silver predicts GOP will take Senate, but Durbin safe

Data guru Nate Silver, writing at, has a new prediction for the U.S. Senate — and Democrats should be worried.

Silver predicts that Republicans will take at least six seats, giving them control of both houses of congress.

Sen. Dick Durbin, now running against Republican nominee Jim Oberweis, appears safe, though. Silver’s model shows Durbin with a 95 percent chance at maintaining his seat in November.

The FiveThirtyEight model shows Louisiana, North Carolina, Alaska and Michigan as the likely crossover states. Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire are in the “plausible” category of swinging from a Democratic Senator to a Republican, though Georgia and Kentucky are listed as possibly shifting Democratic.

Watch Silver discuss his forecast:

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