HOW IT WORKS:
Pro Football Focus, which nearly a third of the NFL subscribes to, has a complex grading process, looking at every player on every offensive, defensive and special-teams play. Plus or minus grades are given and are based around an average of 0, with each position graded slightly differently. If a player does something you normally would expect, then a score of 0 is given. Grades are given for plays that are reasonably considered to be better or worse than the average or expected play. For the final grade, player participation is factored in, using a normalization factor to set the average player in that facet of the game to 0.
The Bears’ matchup against the rival Green Bay Packers on Sunday night is a must-win at every level. The Bears should put forth a desperate effort, but some numbers will be in the Packers’ favor. Here’s how the matchup looks through the analytical lens of Pro Football Focus:
Compare and contrast
There are now eight games to judge the impact that Bears defensive end Jared Allen and Packers end-turned-linebacker Julius Peppers have had for their respective new teams.
As it stands right now, their numbers look similar. But Peppers, the former Bear, still has the edge over Allen in PFF’s reviews.
**Defined by PFF as a run play that results in a loss for the offense.
A better WR duo
The ups and downs of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery look even worse when compared to what Packers receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are doing this season. Cobb and Nelson rate better than the Bears’ big receivers in PFF’s reviews. They’re the NFL’s best receiving duo.
**The passer rating when throwing at a certain receiver.
Packers quick hits
>> The Packers have had trouble protecting quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the past, but not this season.
Heading into Week 10, the Packers rank fifth in PFF’s pass blocking efficiency ratings, allowing just 59 total pressures this season.
>> Rodgers is PFF’s highest rated passer after nine weeks. He’s the only quarterback to grade above 100 in PFF’s adjusted version of passer rating, which factors in drops, throw aways, spikes and receiver production.
–Adam L. Jahns
