TORONTO — The Blackhawks might have a legitimate chance to break the NHL record for the worst team faceoff percentage this season.
That’s not an insult, just a statement. In fact, Hawks management probably anticipated it when they decided to commit to three first-year NHL forwards — Connor Bedard, Lukas Reichel and Cole Guttman — playing center. Plus, analytics have recently called into question the value of faceoff wins in general.
But it’s already clear the Hawks are going to struggle mightily at the dot, regardless of whether it matters a lot, a little or not at all. Through three games, their team faceoff percentage stands at a woeful 31.7%.
Across the board, nobody has found any success yet. Bedard is at 26.5%, having won nine of 34 draws. Reichel is at 25.0%, having won four of 16 draws. Guttman is at 34.8%, having won eight of 23 draws.
Even the more experienced guys are struggling. Jason Dickinson’s career average is 45.1% but he’s at 39.0% this season, having won 16 of 41 draws. Ryan Donato’s career average is 41.6% (and he said this summer he felt poised to improve there) but he’s at 27.3%, having won six of 22 draws. Tyler Johnson’s career average is 49.6% but he’s at 20.0% this season, having won three of 15 draws.
Granted, those are tiny samples. Granted, the Hawks have only played on the road so far, and NHL rules for neutral-zone faceoffs give an advantage to home teams. And granted, the Hawks were spoiled for a decade-plus in this regard by Jonathan Toews, one of the best draw-takers of all time.
But since the league began tracking faceoff stats in 1997-98, no team has posted a full-season faceoff percentage worse than 44.1%, which the Lightning posted that very season. It’s hard to predict if these Hawks will be able to eclipse that mark by April.
Ahead of the Hawks’ next matchup featuring Bedard versus a comparable superstar — this one against Auston Matthews and the Maple Leafs on Monday — the centers were at least working hard on faceoffs after practice Sunday in Toronto, which coach Luke Richardson was thankful to see.
“That’s a good sign because they know that we have to get stronger there,” Richardson said. “Because we can’t chase the puck as much as we [have] this early in the season. It just takes a lot of energy out of our game.”
The Hawks will rely on development coach Yanic Perreault, their legendary in-house faceoff guru, to help the centers improve at the dot as the season progresses.
There’s no need for concern yet, as young centers league-wide usually do struggle with this. For example, Bruins legend Patrice Bergeron won 49.4% of draws as a rookie, then 58.2% over the rest of his career. Penguins star Sidney Crosby, who dominated Bedard at the dot last week and boasts a 52.7% career faceoff percentage, won 45.5% of his draws as a rookie.
In the meantime, however, Richardson is encouraging his centers — if they can’t win the faceoff outright — to instead “get dirty” and try to tie it up, giving time for the wingers to come in for support. The Hawks knowing they’re likely to lose draws can make them more prepared to fight to get the puck back immediately afterward.
Richardson has also recommended his centers “cheat” a bit on faceoffs — in other words, slide forward an extra inch or move their stick a millisecond early — even though doing so increases the risk of getting thrown out.
“if you get away with it, great,” he explained during training camp. “If you don’t, you know you have another [linemate] who can get in there.”
Note: Forward Taylor Hall plans to return to the Hawks’ lineup Monday after surprisingly missing just one game due to his shoulder injury.
