For Hawks, potential first-round opponents flawed, but dangerous

By Mark Lazerus

Vladimir Tarasenko celebrates after scoring a goal against the Blackhawks during the Winter Classic on Jan. 2. (Getty Images)

Despite their 7-0 debacle Saturday against the Florida Panthers, the Blackhawks have a stranglehold on the top seed in the Western Conference, with a seven-point lead on the Minnesota Wild.

So while the Hawks are focused on the last seven games of the regular season — and on trying to recapture the dominant four-line-rotation and puck-possession game they had in February and early March — it’s fair for the rest of us to start looking ahead.

Here are the most likely first-round playoff matchups for the Hawks. The Hawks would be the overwhelming favorite in all of them, but none would be easy.

NASHVILLE PREDATORS

Likelihood of first-round matchup (per hockeyviz.com): 30 percent.

Season series: Hawks lead 4-1-0.

The skinny: A trendy preseason pick to reach the Stanley Cup Final, the Predators have been mired in mediocrity for much of the season. They are seventh in puck possession and seventh in goals per game and boast one of the NHL’s most impressive blue lines, featuring P.K. Subban and Roman Josi.

Player to watch: Goaltending is the Predators’ primary concern. After briefly returning to form following a dreadful 2015-16 season, Pekka Rinne has the 34th-best save percentage in the league since the All-Star break.

Noteworthy: The only two times the Hawks faced the Predators in the first round, they went on to win the Stanley Cup (2010, 2015).

CALGARY FLAMES

Likelihood of first-round matchup: 29 percent.

Season series: Hawks lead 2-0-1.

The skinny: The Flames had been one of the NHL’s hottest teams, but they’ve followed up a 10-game winning streak with a middling 3-3-0 stretch. There’s nothing all that spectacular about the Flames — they’re 12th in puck possession, 16th in goals per game, 12th in goals allowed per game, 14th in power play and 14th in penalty-killing — but there are no glaring weaknesses, either. And they’ve gotten measurably better as the season has gone on. Johnny Gaudreau is having a down year in terms of goal-scoring (16) but remains one of the NHL’s most dynamic offensive talents.

Player to watch: Goalie Brian Elliott, who beat the Hawks in the first round last season with the St. Louis Blues, looked like a total bust early on but has been dynamite lately. Since the All-Star break, he’s 15-2-1 with a .932 save percentage and 1.99 goals-against average.

Noteworthy: The Flames have 12 players with at least 10 goals this season, the most in the league.

ST. LOUIS BLUES

Likelihood of first-round matchup: 29 percent.

Season series: Hawks lead 3-2-0.

The skinny: The Hawks have faced their biggest rivals in the first round in two of the last three seasons and saw their Stanley Cup defense end in Game 7 last April at Scottrade Center. This is a very different Blues team, with David Backes, Troy Brouwer and Kevin Shattenkirk on other teams and coach Ken Hitchcock unemployed. Yet the Blues are the hottest team in the league (9-1-1 in their last 11 games), even after unloading free agent-to-be Shattenkirk at the trade deadline. But they’re among the worst puck-possession teams in the league and have the highest PDO (which measures ‘‘luck’’ by adding save percentage and shooting percentage) in the league, which suggests their success will be difficult to sustain.

Player to watch: With 74 goals in the last two seasons, Vladimir Tarasenko tortures most teams. But he’s particularly productive against the Hawks, with 12 goals and seven assists in 20 regular-season games and eight goals and two assists in 13 playoff games.

Noteworthy: The Blues have a laughably easy schedule down the stretch, with two games each against the Arizona Coyotes and Colorado Avalanche. They only face one playoff team (the Predators) in their last eight games, so they really would have to stumble to finish in the second wild-card spot.

Follow me on Twitter @MarkLazerus.

Email: mlazerus@suntimes.com