Illinois Democrats prevail, but tight race for control of Congress continues

Top-ticket Democrats had a good night Tuesday in Illinois, but no clear winner had emerged in the tight national race for control of Congress and governors’ offices that could determine the future of President Joe Biden’s agenda.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker declared victory over Republican Darren Bailey, a downstate farmer who secured Trump’s endorsement during the primary campaign. And U.S. Sen. Tammy Duckworth soared to a second term, prevailing over Republican challenger Kathy Salvi.

Still, the victories by Pritzker and Duckworth were so certain that the Associated Press called their races the moment the polls closed.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Sean Casten declared victory Tuesday night, and Reps. Lauren Underwood and Bill Foster were leading in other key Illinois congressional races.

Meanwhile, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, two future possible Republican presidential contenders, beat back Democratic challengers to win reelection in the nation’s two largest red states. For Democrat Beto O’Rourke, who lost to Abbott, it was his third failed campaign since 2018.

It was too early to say which party will be in charge of the Senate, which Democrats currently control by virtue of Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote in the 50-50 chamber.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), observing the uncertainty of the election outcome for the GOP during an NBC News broadcast, said, “Definitely not a Republican wave, that’s for darn sure.”

The outcome of races for House and Senate will determine the future of Biden’s agenda and serve as a referendum on his administration as the nation reels from record-high inflation and concerns over the direction of the country. Republican control of the House would likely trigger a round of investigations into Biden and his family, while a GOP Senate takeover would hobble Biden’s ability to make judicial appointments.

Democrats face historic headwinds. The party in power almost always suffers losses in the president’s first midterm elections, but Democrats had been hoping that anger from the Supreme Court’s decision to gut abortion rights might energize their voters to buck historical trends.

Even Biden, who planned to watch the evening’s election returns at the White House, said late Monday night that he thought his party would keep the Senate but “the House is tougher.” Asked how that would make governing, his assessment was stark: “More difficult.”

In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker were vying for a seat that could determine control of the Senate.

Republicans are betting that messaging focused on the economy, gas prices and crime will resonate with voters at a time of soaring inflation and rising violence.

AP VoteCast, a broad survey of the national electorate, showed that high inflation and concerns about the fragility of democracy were heavily influencing voters.

Half of voters said inflation factored significantly, with groceries, gasoline, housing, food and other costs that have shot up in the past year. Slightly fewer — 44% — said the future of democracy was their primary consideration.

Few major voting problems were reported around the country, though there were hiccups typical of most Election Days. Some tabulators were not working in a New Jersey county. In Philadelphia, where Democrats are counting on strong turnout, people complained about being turned away as they showed up in person to try to fix problems with their previously cast mail-in ballots.

In Maricopa County, Arizona, which encompasses Phoenix and is the state’s largest county, officials reported problems with vote-tabulation machines in about 20% of voting places. That fueled anger and skepticism about voting that has been growing among some Republicans since the state went narrowly for Biden in 2020.

In the first national election since the Jan. 6 insurrection, the country’s democratic future is in question. Some who participated in or were in the vicinity of the attack are poised to win elected office Tuesday, including several running for House seats. Concerns about political violence are also on the rise less than two weeks after a suspect under the spell of conspiracy theories targeted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s San Francisco home and brutally beat her 82-year-old husband.

The 2022 elections are on track to cost a projected $16.7 billion at the state and federal level, making them the most expensive midterms ever, according to the nonpartisan campaign finance tracking organization OpenSecrets.

Republicans entered the final stretch of the campaign in a strong position to retake control of at least one chamber of Congress, giving them power to thwart Biden’s agenda for the remaining two years of his term. The GOP needed a net gain of just one seat to win the U.S. Senate and five to regain the U.S. House.

All House seats were up for grabs, as were 34 Senate seats — with cliffhangers especially likely in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona. Thirty-six states are electing governors, with many of those races also poised to come down to the slimmest of margins.