The Bears are falling for Mitch Trubisky. Again.
Matt Nagy is gushing over all the improvements Trubisky made during his benching and is certain the big numbers he put up in the last two games are “real.” Ryan Pace is leaving it open-ended on the team-run pre-game show when asked if the rest of the season is Trubisky’s tryout for 2021.
And with each seemingly effortless completion lately, it gets easier for the Bears to convince themselves of something they’ve wanted to believe for four years: Somewhere in there is the franchise quarterback they need.
“For him to be where he’s at right now, the way he’s doing it, that’s a credit to him — You can’t take that away from him,” Nagy said. “What he’s trying to do right now is be the greatest quarterback he can be for the Chicago Bears, be the greatest leader he can be for the Chicago Bears, be the greatest teammate he can be for the Chicago Bears. And the last three games, his performance individually has been pretty good.”
Nagy is correct that Trubisky has played well since his return as the starter.
He has completed 67% of his passes, averaged 259 yards per game, thrown seven touchdown passes against two interceptions and has a 100.0 passer rating. All of that is helpful as the Bears desperately try to claw their way past the Cardinals and Vikings for the final NFC playoff spot.
But the problem for Trubisky is he doesn’t get to face the Lions and Texans every week. Those are two of the NFL’s worst pass defenses, and most of the headway he made against the Packers came well after Green Bay had buried the Bears with a 41-10 lead.
Context matters.
It matters now as he looks like a star against terrible opponents. It matters when he’s labeled a Pro Bowler for making it as a fill-in after others withdrew. It matters when his six-touchdown outburst against the Buccaneers in 2018 is held up as evidence that he can take over a game — without remembering that Tampa Bay allowed the highest opponent passer rating (110.9) for the season of any NFL team in the last five years and fired its defensive coordinator two weeks later.
Those are the teams Trubisky has feasted on, and he’s feasting on them again. He has impeccable timing in his return, because it’s possible he won’t see another good defense the rest of the season. The Bears visit the Vikings on Sunday, and they’re 24th in points allowed and opponent passer rating. The Jaguars are abysmal. And the Packers might have nothing to play for in the season finale.
He might very well cruise through those games and get the Bears to the postseason, but should that negate three-plus seasons of evidence that he’s not the guy? Would the Bears, who had seen enough at the end of last season to trade for Nick Foles and decline Trubisky’s fifth-year option, really consider bringing him back for 2021?
They shouldn’t, but this team has made worse decisions at quarterback. Mike Glennon is the first name that comes to mind, but there’s a long list. Just because the idea of Trubisky returning next season sounds crazy to everyone else doesn’t mean it sounds crazy inside Halas Hall.
Nor does it sound crazy to Trubisky, who can still see himself with the Bears despite a turbulent year.
“I’ve thought about it, but thoughts come and go,” he said. “Right now I’ve just gotta stay focused on what’s about to happen this weekend and preparing every day for the Vikings.”
Ah yes, the Vikings, fresh off 43-year-old Tom Brady raking them for a 120.9 passer rating. A month ago, they gave up a 104.0 to Andy Dalton. It’s another chance for Mitch the Magician to perform one of his illusions.
In 19 career games against teams that ended the season in the bottom 10 in opponent passer rating (or are currently there this season), Trubisky has completed 69.4% of his passes, averaged 234 yards per game and put up 32 touchdowns with just seven interceptions for a 107.3 rating.
The other 28 games? Those have looked much more familiar: 59.8% completions, 194 yards per game, 29 touchdowns, 27 interceptions and a 74.7 rating.
It’s only “real” if it holds up against quality opponents.
The last time the Bears thought they had something real with Trubisky was 2018, his supposed breakthrough. But if you set that Tampa Bay game aside, the rest of his season fit his career trajectory: an 89.0 passer rating with 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
Teams usually know by this point whether their first-round quarterback can lead the franchise for years to come. Deshaun Watson established himself by the end of his rookie season. Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson each won an MVP in Year 2.
Nagy loves the story of Alex Smith, who finally started to break through as a viable NFL quarterback — not a star — in his seventh season. The Bears can’t possibly afford to wait that long.
If they want to ride with Trubisky for now because he’s better than Foles and he might be just good enough to get them in the playoffs, fine. But their path forward is through a rebuild, especially at quarterback. It’s time to draft the next one and wish Trubisky well as he gets a fresh start elsewhere.
The Bears made a franchise-altering mistake the first time they bet on Trubisky. They can’t do it again.
