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Saturday Six-Pack: Week 4 college football picks

TENNESSEE AT NO. 19 FLORIDA

The facts: 2:30 p.m., Ch. 2.

The records: Tennessee 2-1, Florida 1-1.

The line: Florida by 16.

The story line: The Gators may have the best defense in the SEC, which certainly means they have one of the best Ds in the country. Will Muschamp only wishes there were such good things — or any good things — to say about his offense. You can pretty much forget about Florida getting back to a BCS game this season. Last weekend at Oregon, Butch Jones experienced his first blowout loss as coach of the Vols. Nothing like a rivalry game to help stoke a bounce-back effort. Forget that huge point spread; it’s ridiculous.

Greenberg’s pick: Florida, 20-17.

MICHIGAN STATE AT NO. 22 NOTRE DAME

The facts: 2:30 p.m., Ch. 5.

The records: Michigan State 3-0, Notre Dame 2-1.

The line: Notre Dame by 5.

The story line: The Spartans’ defense is just dangerous enough to win this game for Michigan State if Irish quarterback Tommy Rees doesn’t take good care of the ball. Offensively, though, MSU is still mired in a year-plus-long funk. It’s a good chance for Notre Dame’s D to get well after a couple of tough weeks. Be careful, though, Tommy. Be verrry careful.

Greenberg’s pick: Notre Dame, 20-13.

PURDUE AT NO. 24 WISCONSIN

The facts: 2:30 p.m., Ch. 7.

The records: Purdue 1-2, Wisconsin 2-1.

The line: Wisconsin by 24.

The story line: The Badgers should be good and angry after the late-game debacle that cost them a likely victory at Arizona State. If the second quarter rolls around and their massive offensive linemen are already stepping on the Boilermakers’ faces (metaphorically speaking, of course), you’ll know the rout is on. This is the first Big Ten game of the season and the only one this weekend. Translation: For at least a little while, Illinois won’t be in last place in the Leaders Division.

Greenberg’s pick: Wisconsin, 52-21.

NO. 23 ARIZONA STATE at NO. 5 STANFORD

The facts: 6 p.m., Fox-32.

The records: Arizona State 2-0, Stanford 2-0.

The line: Stanford by 6.

The story line: If there’s a team that most closely resembles Alabama, it’s Stanford. Even when Andrew Luck was still in Palo Alto, the Cardinal’s aim was to man up and pummel opponents. Jim Harbaugh instilled toughness in the program. In two-plus seasons as coach, David Shaw, formerly Harbaugh’s offensive coordinator, has raised the talent level — especially on the defensive side of the ball — without compromising an ounce of that toughness. The Cardinal are huge along the offensive and defensive fronts, and their linebacking corps may be the biggest ever in college football. It adds up to a physical mismatch. The Sun Devils aren’t yet skilled enough to beat Stanford with speed and pace, á la Oregon.

Greenberg’s pick: Stanford, 34-10.

AUBURN AT NO. 6 LSU

The facts: 6:45 p.m., ESPN.

The records: Auburn 3-0, LSU 3-0.

The line: LSU by 17.

The story line: Let’s get this lame joke out of the way right now: No matter what, the Tigers will win. Really, it should be LSU’s Tigers rather comfortably. The offense has picked up dramatically under first-year coordinator Cam Cameron’s leadership, with Zach Mettenberger’s powerful passing arm finally being put to good use. Auburn’s offense has awakened, too, in Gus Malzahn’s first year as coach. Malzahn was Cam Newton’s offensive coordinator in Auburn’s national championship season.

Greenberg’s pick: LSU, 27-13.

KANSAS STATE AT TEXAS

The facts: 7 p.m.

The records: Kansas State 2-1, Texas 1-2.

The line: Texas by 6.

The story line: Mack Brown has described coaching counterpart Bill Snyder in the most flattering of terms over the years, and it has been well-earned; Snyder has had some of his greatest success against Texas. Kansas State has won the past five meetings between the teams — truly impressive and almost impossible to believe, given the Longhorns’ head-to-head athletic advantages. The Wildcats aren’t the same team without Collin Klein at quarterback, but they can still be counted on to play 60 minutes of disciplined, hard-nosed football. UT fans probably couldn’t tell you the last time they saw such an effort from Brown and company. This is a regional ABC that won’t be shown in Chicago, which will get a Michigan-UConn dud. Much better game in Austin Saturday night.

Greenberg’s pick: Kansas State, 27-24.