The major league draft is just a month away, and for the first time in at least five years nobody around here seems to notice.
A big part of that is that the Cubs don’t pick until the No. 104 overall slot in the May 9-11 draft. A bigger part is the spotlight glare that comes with the best start in the majors and high performances across every position area (which, of course, is related to why they draft so low in the first place).
“Very weird,” said Cubs president Theo Epstein, whose club drafted No. 6, 2, 4 and 9 overall in his first four drafts running the Cubs.
But just because they lack a top pick (they had five of the top 101 as recently as 2012) doesn’t mean the Cubs lack urgency as they prepare for what could be as important a draft for the organization as Kris Bryant’s 2013 draft.
Because if nobody’s paying attention to next month’s results a few years from now, that national spotlight could start to take on a painful glare when it comes to the pitching staff.
“The big thing for us is starting pitching,” Epstein said of the Cubs’ player development focus going forward. “We’re supremely confident about our ability to identify and develop position players, and waves of position players.
“We have not done nearly as good a job with starting pitching – pitching in general. And that has to change.”
The Cubs’ first-round picks under Epstein: Albert Almora (playing well at AAA Iowa and on track for a 2016 debut), 2015 NL Rookie of the Year Bryant, 2015 playoff hero Kyle Schwarber and defensively versatile switch-hitter Ian Happ (.870 OPS at high-A Myrtle Beach).
The Cubs’ success stories among the 80 pitchers selected in those four drafts?
There aren’t any.
“We’ve built some of the best pitching staffs in baseball the last couple years, statistically, but it hasn’t been through our system,” Epstein said. “And eventually we’re going to need that.”
This year the Cubs have the top-performing pitching staff in the majors, including three of the top four in National League earned run average.
But none of the 13 pitchers on the staff was drafted and developed by the Cubs – who in the last two winters alone committed $205 million in free agent contracts to three pitchers (Jon Lester, Jason Hammel and John Lackey) to build a competitive rotation.
Lackey’s free agent signing cost the Cubs this year’s first-round pick. When they signed Jason Heyward, they gave up their second-round pick.
Nine of the 13 were acquired in trades, and closer Hector Rondon was a Rule 5 pick. Most of the better pitching prospects, according to various minor-league rankings, are Class A players – which make them relative crapshoots at this point in their careers.
It’s no coincidence the Cubs targeted younger, controllable pitchers in trading-deadline talks last summer, including San Diego right-hander Tyson Ross, who has been on the DL the last month with shoulder inflammation, and multiple pitchers from the young Cleveland Indians staff.
It’s also why this might be the year to focus on pitching volume in the draft more than any other since Epstein took over.
Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta is eligible for free agency after next season. Same with Lackey. Hammel’s contract runs through this season. And Lester hits the backside of his six-year deal after next year.
“We’d love to pick up high, but we can do a lot of damage from [round] three on,” Epstein said.
Whether the Cubs can find their impact starter or two with two rounds tied behind their backs, their top player development executive, Jason McLeod, offered historic encouragement when asked about the low-picking status during Cubs convention.
“My first draft ever as a scouting director in Boston, we didn’t have a first pick until No. 65,” he said. “And that player turned into Dustin Pedroia.
“Good things can happen if you stick with your process and work hard.”
The Red Sox’ second pick that year at No. 95 overall?
University of Virginia left-hander Andrew Dobies.
Who?
Dobies is a regional rep for an investment management firm, according to his LinkedIn profile.
“As an organization,” Epstein said, “we just have to take it as a challenge to have a great draft despite not picking the first day.”
