INDIANAPOLIS — Rebuilds are brutal.
When the Bears began their most recent one under general manager Ryan Poles in 2022, they essentially threw away an entire season just trying to straighten out their roster, payroll and draft assets. From there, it required a series of correct calls on draft picks, free agents and trade acquisitions — some of which went sideways and slowed them — just to get the team back to mediocrity at 7-10.
Now, with the first and ninth picks and another treasure chest of salary-cap space, the Bears have an opportunity to vault themselves into contention.
But if they get nearly everything right, this is a competitive, zero-sum game. Rebuilding well isn’t enough. They must rebuild better than the other teams that are trying to do the same thing.
That’s why as the Bears seemingly work toward identifying their quarterback, which likely would be USC star Caleb Williams with the No. 1 pick in the draft, they’ll have an eye on where the other top prospects land.
If the Commanders or Giants, for example, land a future star in LSU’s Jayden Daniels — seemingly the one prospect whose upside could rival Williams’ — and accelerate their own rebuilds, the Bears will spend years having to battle them for playoff spots or advancement.
After Williams and Daniels, there’s a good chance North Carolina’s Drake Maye and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy go in the top 10 picks. Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix are possible first-rounders, as well.
The Bears already sit in the least certain quarterback situation in their own division for next season. Even if they take Williams, who is thought to be the best prospect at his position out of the last three draft classes combined, there’s no predicting how he’ll do as a rookie.
Meanwhile, the Lions almost made it to the Super Bowl with three-time Pro Bowl selection Jared Goff last season. He still isn’t 30, and they’re likely to sign him to a long-term extension. Spotrac projected it at four years and $180 million.
The Packers likely will spend even more to secure Jordan Love, who was second in touchdown passes and ninth in passer rating as a first-time starter last season. He’s already 2-0 against the Bears, maintaining the tradition of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers.
And the Vikings are set up to bring back veteran Kirk Cousins and draft his replacement, either with the No. 11 pick or by trading up. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah talked about both of those ideas this week.
The competition for elite quarterbacks only seems to intensify, and the rest of the NFL can see exactly what the standard is in the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes. They’ve gone to the AFC Championship Game all six of his seasons as their starter and just won the Super Bowl with arguably the worst roster they’ve ever put around him.
When everyone’s chasing that, or at least a quarterback who gives them a chance against him, it’s a really good time to have the No. 1 overall pick in a strong quarterback class.
Roughly half the league would be justified in drafting one this year, and the Bears are fortunate to control their options rather than hope their guy falls to them. They’d still be looking at quarterbacks if they had only the No. 9 pick, but the outlook would be drastically different.
It’s dicey drafting quarterbacks and worrying about whether someone else gets the right guy, but at least Poles gets to make that choice himself. It’s better to be making those decisions than having them made for you.
