Three Big Ten men’s basketball teams were tied in the loss column with nine entering the final full week of the regular season.
One of them, Michigan State, can’t play its way out of the NCAA Tournament no matter how hard it seemingly tries.
Another, Minnesota, might not be able to play its way into the NCAA field without winning the conference tournament in Minneapolis.
And the third, Iowa — playing better right now than any team in the league outside of Purdue and Illinois — is perilously on the bubble. CBS Sports bracketology expert Jerry Palm had the Hawkeyes in his “first four out” as of Sunday.
Barring an out-of-nowhere championship run in the league tournament, the Big Ten likely will have six or seven teams in the Big Dance. Either number would be its lowest since 2018.
Here’s where each of the eight teams with any sort of actual shot at receiving an at-large bid stands:
Purdue
Where it’s at: 26-3 overall, 15-3 Big Ten; NCAA NET ranking: 2.
What’s left: Tuesday at Illinois, Sunday vs. Wisconsin.
Outlook: At this point, Purdue could tie one hand behind its back and still get a No. 1 NCAA seed. It probably shouldn’t be a hand belonging to Zach Edey, just to be on the safe side.
Illinois
Where it’s at: 22-7, 13-5; NET ranking: 15.
What’s left: Tuesday vs. Purdue, Sunday at Iowa.
Outlook: The Illini still have a sneaky shot to tie for the league’s regular-season title. A double-bye in the league tournament either way will be sweet. Beating the Boilermakers or Iowa would almost certainly lock the Illini into no worse than a No. 4 NCAA seed. Beating both — wouldn’t that be something? — might lift them to a 3. The Illini don’t always play much defense, but they’re so strong offensively, their peak could be in front of them.
“March is a time to hopefully get it all figured out,” coach Brad Underwood said, “and continue playing for a while.”
Northwestern
Where it’s at: 20-9, 11-7; NET ranking: 53.
What’s left: Wednesday at Michigan State, Saturday vs. Minnesota.
Outlook: Ty Berry is out for the season. Ryan Langborg has missed the last couple of games. Matthew Nicholson’s status is in question after he hurt his foot and missed most of the second half of a loss to Iowa on Saturday. All the experts have the Wildcats in the NCAA field as of now, but this team might need another “W” to be safe. Being on a four-game losing streak going into Selection Sunday could make it too easy for the selection committee to play the “health” card against Chris Collins’ team.
“We’ll figure it out,” Collins said. “We’re going to keep our spirits up.”
Nebraska
Where it’s at: 21-9, 11-8; NET ranking: 43 (before victory Sunday against Rutgers).
What’s left: Sunday at Michigan.
Outlook: The Huskers were a 10 seed in CBS’ latest projection, but they have nothing left to gain schedule-wise until Minneapolis. They’re probably safe, but you know they still remember being left out despite a 13-5 league record in 2018 like it was yesterday.
Wisconsin
Where it’s at: 18-11, 10-8; NET ranking: 23.
What’s left: Thursday vs. Rutgers, Sunday at Purdue.
Outlook: How to put this nicely? The Badgers stink. They’ve lost seven of nine, but they’re still up there as a 6 seed or so thanks to their tremendous schedule strength. This is why you play Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette and Virginia early on.
Iowa
Where it’s at: 18-12, 10-9; NET ranking: 57.
What’s left: Sunday vs. Illinois.
Outlook: If we were watching the same studio shows over the weekend, we heard more than one analyst say the Hawkeyes put themselves safely in the field by winning in Evanston. The bracketologists disagree, though, and you always have to go with the guys who have advanced degrees in this stuff.
Minnesota
Where it’s at: 18-11, 9-9; NET ranking: 77.
What’s left: Wednesday vs. Indiana, Saturday at Northwestern.
Outlook: When does a 9-9 Big Ten record count for utterly nothing? When you’re 1-7 in Quad 1 games. Enjoy the NIT.
Michigan State
Where it’s at: 17-12, 9-9; NET ranking: 22.
What’s left: Wednesday vs. Northwestern, Sunday at Indiana.
Outlook: This is why you play Duke, Arizona and Baylor. The Spartans have been one of the most disappointing teams in the country, yet they’re in fine shape as far as getting into the Dance is concerned.
“I’ve got a good basketball team,” coach Tom Izzo said. “I’m not saying it’s great. It’s good.”
Not much of a rallying cry.
How I voted
My ballot for the latest AP Top 25, which comes out Monday: 1. UConn, 2. Houston, 3. Purdue, 4. Tennessee, 5. Arizona, 6. Iowa State, 7. North Carolina, 8. Marquette, 9. Duke, 10. Illinois, 11. Auburn, 12. Creighton, 13. Baylor, 14. Alabama, 15. Kentucky, 16. Kansas, 17. South Carolina, 18. San Diego State, 19. Washington State, 20. BYU, 21. Gonzaga, 22. Utah State, 23. South Florida, 24. Saint Mary’s, 25. Florida.
