Change is inevitable in the NFL, even when everything is going great. For the Bears, after a tremendously disappointing 8-8 season, it is imperative.
They can’t possibly go into next season with the same roster and expect a different outcome, so moves are coming. That likely means some prominent players are on their way out, even if they’ve been good.
Analysts at OverTheCap have them at $6 million in salary cap space for 2020, which isn’t enough to address their issues. As he heads into a season that could make or break his tenure with the Bears, general manager Ryan Pace might have to sacrifice at positions of strength and reallocate that money to bolster weak spots.
With that in mind, here are five big names that could be leaving the Bears this offseason:
S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
Clinton-Dix was upfront with the Bears about his intentions all along: He signed a one-year deal with an eye on thriving in a good defense and reestablishing his market value. He believes he accomplished that, and at 27, he’s unlikely to take another budget-friendly deal unless he’s low on options. He loves playing with Eddie Jackson, but he probably loves multi-year contracts more.
Clinton-Dix played 99 percent of the Bears’ defensive snaps and finished with 78 tackles, five pass breakups, an interception and two fumble recoveries.
Losing Clinton-Dix will likely cost the Bears money rather than save it, since his salary was so favorable at $3.5 million. The cheap move would be to re-sign Deon Bush, but there are several veteran safeties available in free agency as well. The Bears might need another one-year rental.
WR Taylor Gabriel
It would have been interesting to see what Gabriel did if he had stayed healthy this season, but he made it through just nine games because of two concussions and had 29 catches, 253 yards and four touchdowns. A huge chunk of that production came in the game against the Redskins.
Gabriel can still help the Bears, but they’d like to see Anthony Miller take on a bigger role. And dropping Gabriel is one of their most obvious cost-cutting options. Instead of his $6.5 million salary next season and $7.5 million in 2021, they can cut him for a dead-cap hit of $2 million.
Miller would get a shot at being the No. 2 receiver, and the Bears can either increase Javon Wims’ opportunity, take a shot with a late-round draft pick or shop for a modest free agent.
OLB Leonard Floyd
Rescinding Floyd’s 2020 option, which is protected only for injury, would be the easiest money saver for the Bears on paper, but it would ask a lot from Pace to part with a player he drafted No. 9 overall in 2016. But the Bears are on the hook for $13.2 million to keep Floyd, which currently slots him as the third-highest-paid player on the 2020 roster.
Pace didn’t sound like someone who would consider moving on from Floyd when his name came up a few weeks ago.
“We’re happy with Leonard,” Pace said. “I know the stats don’t always say that, but Leonard does a lot of things that I think may be a little bit undervalued. I think the versatility that he provides, the things he can do in coverage — there aren’t a lot of outside linebackers [with] the versatility that he provides.
“Would we like more production from him? Yeah. But there’s a lot of things that he does that we like. As far as his contract, you know we’re never going to get into those things, but we like Leonard. We’re glad he’s here.”
Again, it is incredibly hard for a general manager to give up on a player he chose in the first round.
What the rest of the world sees, though, is a pass rusher who 18.5 sacks over four years and had a career-low three this season. With Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks in the picture, they should be able to find an affordable replacement.
LB Nick Kwiatkoski
This one is going to hurt.
Drafting and developing talent is difficult, and it’s brutal to foster all that progress only to see a young player leave in free agency. With Kwiatkoski, it’s a case of prioritizing the immediate instead of the long-term. While the Bears surely want to re-sign a promising 26-year-old, they’d be better off trying to reach a short-term deal to keep 29-year-old Danny Trevathan.
Defensively, the Bears already have Mack under contract for $129.1 million through 2024, Jackson for $60.7 million through ’24, defensive tackle Eddie Goldman for $41.5 through ’22 and cornerback Kyle Fuller for $31.5 million through ’21. They also must prepare to pay inside linebacker Roquan Smith a massive salary in his 2022 option or sign him to a big extension.
TE Trey Burton
It seems unlikely the Bears would want to eat $7.5 million in dead salary cap space to cut Burton this year, but they’d almost have to if they want to pursue a top tight end in free agency. Falcons tight end Austin Hooper and the Chargers’ Hunter Henry are up-and-comers who will be available, and they’re likely to command $8-11 million annually on four- or five-year deals.
The Bears are almost certain to draft a tight end with one of their second-round picks, but rookies are unpredictable at that position. Many struggle to acclimate to the size and speed of NFL linebackers and pass rushers in their first season.
Pace has some glaring errors on his record, but it’s unfair to include Burton on that list. He signed Burton to a reasonable four-year, $32 million contract, and he set career highs across the board in his first season. There is no way the team could have predicted Burton’s injury trouble, and if he comes back healthy next season, there’s good cause to believe he can solve their tight end problems.
There’s one wildcard here. If the Bears are able to cut costs elsewhere and if tight end matters as much to them as they say, there’s a scenario where they could keep Burton and add a significant pass catcher opposite him. They could put him and someone like Hooper on the field at the same time this season and reevaluate a year from now when the cap hit on cutting Burton drops to $1.8 million.
