A new poll commissioned by the Democratic Governors Association shows Gov. Pat Quinn for the first time pulling ahead ofhis Republican opponent Bruce Rauner by 3 percentage points.
It is the first time since 2013that a poll that’s beenmade publicly availableshowsQuinn leadingRauner.
Even an August internal Quinn poll showed the governor one point behind Rauner. Since the primary, Rauner has enjoyed a consistent lead that moved in and out of double-digits. Last week, Reboot Illinois published a We Ask America poll showing Rauner with a 9-point lead.
The new Democraticpollshows 5 percent of those queried choseLibertarian Chad Grimm. Republicans had unsuccessfully sought to boot Libertarians from the ballot. Democrats, meanwhile, were successful in blocking a Green Party candidate.
A memo about the internal poll, conducted by the Global Strategy Group, claims Rauner’s popularity has taken a plunge.
“As he has become better known, Rauner’s negative ratings have increased by 20 points among Democrats (16% fav/43% unfav to 9% fav/63% unfav) and by 13 among Independents (35% fav/21% unfav to 35% fav/34% unfav) with no increase in his positive ratings,” according to the memo.
The poll, obtained by Early & Often, was atelephonesurvey of 605 likely Nov. 2014 Illinois voters. It wasconducted Sept. 4-7 and had amargin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Cross-tabs were not made available.
“Quinn has strong odds of holding on to the seat as long as he can consolidate his party’s voters,” the memo states.
Here’s more from the memo:
Quinn has taken the lead over Rauner. Quinn leads the race with 43% of the vote compared to 40% for Rauner and 5% for Libertarian Chad Grimm. Rauner’s popularity is sinking. Rauner is 13 points better known now (72% familiar) than in June (59%), but his favorability has held steady while his negative ratings have shot up by 13 points (34% fav/26% unfav to 33% fav/39% unfav). Rauner has become an unpalatable choice for the state’s Democrats and an increasingly divisive figure among Independents over the course of the campaign. As he has become better known, Rauner’s negative ratings have increased by 20 points among Democrats (16% fav/43% unfav to 9% fav/63% unfav) and by 13 among Independents (35% fav/21% unfav to 35% fav/34% unfav) with no increase in his positive ratings. Quinn enjoys the support of 81% of Democrats, matching Republican consolidation behind Rauner (83%). Self-described conservatives are the only ideological segment of the electorate that afford Rauner an advantage in the race, while Quinn leads among moderate voters (40% Quinn/37% Rauner) and by a double-digit margin among non-conservative Independents (42% Quinn/31% Rauner). — Global Strategy Group
Here’s an overview of polls in a Rauner-Quinn matchup.