Here’s one thing about trading Dylan Cease. If he’s not the White Sox’ Opening Day starter, then who will be?
After Cease, the possibilities include newcomers Erick Fedde, Michael Soroka and Chris Flexen and holdovers Michael Kopech and Touki Toussaint, to name a handful. Another half-dozen pitchers who heard manager Pedro Grifol say, “We’re looking at 15 or 16 starters,” want to be considered candidates, as well.
But even with Cease, the Sox are cutting payroll in the aftermath of a failed rebuild and won’t be built to contend in 2024 and might not be in 2025, either. So it makes sense to move their No. 2 commodity — second only to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. — for prospects or young major-league players to a contending team. Cease will be paid $8 million this season and probably a few million more next season before he hits free agency seeking even bigger bucks with Scott Boras as his agent.
And so Cease, second in American League Cy Young voting two seasons ago, remains on the block with 11 days left before spring training. The longer he remains in a Sox uniform, the greater the gamble taken by the Sox, who haven’t seen Cease miss a start in 2021, 2022 and 2023 but know, with any pitcher, a fielding-practice ankle sprain or mildly sore arm in spring training will affect value.
“It’s definitely a high-risk, high-reward situation,” a major-league front-office source said. “Of course, they started with the typically ridiculous asking price like all do in this situation. But with a front-end starting pitcher, they do have tremendous leverage. So you take offers, get realistic, and grab the best one if you are comfortable. They still have a little bit of time.”
If Cease opens the season with the Sox, he could find himself in the same uncertain place he stood last year at the July 31 trade deadline — at his locker checking his phone for news.
Cease was searching for answers with pitching coach Ethan Katz more than building a Cy Young case last season, when his ERA more than doubled from 2.20 to 4.58. But he’s expected to fetch a good return with a resumé showing 33, 32 and 33 starts the last three seasons, leading the AL twice in the significant “takes the ball” column. Cease had at least 214 strikeouts the last three years (but he also had high walk and wild-pitch numbers and averaged 5„ innings per start because of high pitch counts).
The Sox have been linked to the Reds, Orioles, Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and most recently the Mariners (righties Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, who stabilized the back end of Seattle’s rotation as rookies last season, are in play, according to USA Today) in trade discussions for Cease, 28. As GM Chris Getz likely touted Cease’s 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate over the last three seasons and held firm to his asking price of multiple top prospects or a combination of major-league-ready players and prospects, the Orioles might have stared at Cease’s 2023 numbers when they made a deal for Corbin Burnes on Thursday.
“The year before that is irrelevant,” one former GM said. “For pitchers, there’s an old saying: If your report is more than 12 months old, don’t offer your opinion on baseball ability. The only thing you can offer up is your take on his makeup.”
To that end, Cease is top shelf. He has handled the trade talks professionally.
“It’s the right guy [to deal with the uncertainty],” Grifol said. “He’s unfazed by this. I talked to him, it was a great conversation and we talked about him for Opening Day. And he’s preparing himself for that, and he feels great.”
Cease is going about his business as if he’s facing the Tigers on March 28 at Guaranteed Rate Field, which Grifol already declared would happen — if he’s around.
To which no one is surprised. On the Sox’ staff, as it shapes up today, the guy who came from the Cubs with Eloy Jimenez in a big rebuild deal in 2017 is in a class by himself.
“If it happens, he understands the business,” Grifol said. “But, like I told him and he told me, right now he’s our Opening Day starter. I understand [he might be gone]. But, at the same time, we have to do what’s best for the organization, not just in 2024 but ’25 and beyond. But he has the right mentality for it. Trades are hard to pull off. Everybody has to be comfortable with those. We’ll see what happens, but right now he’s our Opening Day starter, and I’m happy about that.”
