Cubs' bullpen has been a problem in the postseason

Cubs’ bullpen has been a problem in the postseason

By John Grochowski

Through the first two games of the National League Championship Series, Cubs starting pitchers have a major-league-best 1.98 ERA in the playoffs.

But Cubs relievers have a 7.03 ERA. Only the Rockies (9.45) have been worse, and that was in only one game — a wild-card loss to the Diamondbacks.

The Dodgers, who won the first two NLCS games against the Cubs in Los Angeles, rank fourth with a starters’ ERA of 3.55 and first with a relievers’ ERA of 1.37.

Relievers’ importance is underlined in a postseason in which starters are averaging less than five innings. When Jose Quintana went five innings and Jon Lester 4 2/3 innings for the Cubs in Los Angeles, those weren’t short starts by 2017 standards.

No playoff team has had its starters average as much as six innings. The Cubs (36 1/3 innings from their starters in seven games) and Dodgers (25 1/3 innings in five games) are just over five innings per start.

That’s part of a long-term trend toward increasing reliance on bullpens. The attitude that relievers are failed starters is long gone, and even starters who are pitching well now are removed in favor of relievers groomed for late-inning roles.

It wasn’t always so. Let’s take a snapshot of starter/reliever innings and ERAs, using memorable Cubs seasons as touchstones.

1918: Pitching splits at Baseball-Reference.com don’t go back as far as the Cubs’ World Series champions in 1908, so let’s start with their NL champs in the next-to-last season of the dead-ball era.

In that season, Cubs starters averaged eight innings with a 2.16 ERA; their relievers’ ERA was 2.48. Major-league starters averaged 7.7 innings and a 2.74 ERA; relievers’ ERA was 2.95.

1945: The starters on the Cubs’ last NL champions until 2016 averaged 7.2 innings with a 2.94 ERA; their relievers’ ERA was 3.33. Major-league starters averaged seven innings and a 3.53 ERA; relievers’ ERA was 3.81.

1984: On their way to winning the NL East and earning their first postseason berth in 39 years, the Cubs saw their starters average 6.1 innings with a 3.69 ERA; their relievers’ ERA was 3.89. Major-league starters averaged 6.3 innings with a 3.96 ERA; relievers were nearly a half-run lower at 3.47.

Starters’ innings were dropping, but the Cubs were an exception with their starters’ ERA lower than their relievers’ ERA.

2017: Major-league starters averaged 5.5 innings with a 4.49 ERA and a .766 OPS against. Once relievers took over, ERA dropped to 4.15 and OPS against to .724.

The Cubs were better than average at preventing runs, but they showed a similar pattern. Their starters averaged 5.5 innings with a 4.05 ERA and a .728 OPS against. Their relievers improved that to a 3.80 ERA and a .688 OPS against.

The jump to a 7.03 relief ERA in the postseason hasn’t been the Cubs’ only problem. Scoring two runs and one run in NLCS play won’t win many games. But in this age, increased opponents’ scoring once the bullpen is in the game isn’t a recipe for success.

Follow me on Twitter @GrochowskiJ.