As any scout will freely admit, analyzing a minor league player is far from a perfect science. Players who are sure things often turn to busts and superstars can sometimes come out of nowhere.
With Jake Arrieta preparing to pitch in the biggest Cubs game in seven years, Baseball Prospectus re-published their analysis of the Baltimore Orioles 2009 farm system.
The analysis looks into the live fastball a young Arrieta showcased coming out of TCU, but criticized him for failing to live up to early expectations. Also saying Arrieta “lacked polish” and “all around skill” of others in the system.
Most scouts project him as a good No. 3 starter who can easily handle a workload of 200 innings and more. Those types are underrated at times by fans, but they’re worth their weight in gold to general managers.
The Cubs, or really any other team in Major League Baseball, would kill to have a third starter even close to as good as Arrieta.
It’s tough to criticize BP for their analysis. Arrieta was a bust with the Orioles and needed some big adjustments to reinvent his career.
However, the “workhorse” pitcher has turned into an ace among aces and may end up as the NL Cy Young winner.
