The simple math of ‘excess mortality’ — this pandemic kills

Just how deadly is COVID-19?

The answer to that question should guide every decision our nation makes as to how to keep ourselves and others safe, yet it has proven maddeningly difficult to nail down and agree upon.

In part, the problem has been one of science. Estimated mortality rates from COVID-19 have been revised, up and down, as scientists and health professionals have collected and analyzed new data and devised better medical treatments.

The problem has also been one of politics. From the very beginning, there has been desire by many political leaders, mostly on the right and most obviously President Trump, to downplay the deadliness of the virus. They have found it more expedient to denigrate the science of the disease than to take the bold measures required — actions derided by anti-government conservatives and libertarians — to slow and contain the spread of the disease.

The basic argument made by those who seek to minimize the dangers of COVID-19 is that most people killed by the virus are quite old and already quite sick and on the verge of death anyway. And if a younger person who has the virus were to jump out of a plane and his parachute failed to open, the skeptics joke, some liberal doctor would record the cause of death as COVID-19.

Given this disagreement and doubt, it’s important to stress that there is, in fact, an emerging gold standard for measuring the deadliness of COVID-19 — something researchers call “excess deaths.” And by that sturdy standard, according to a new study by the Centers for Disease Control, the virus actually is more deadly than most news reports would suggest.

That’s a profoundly important message, from what traditionally has been one of our nation’s most trusted research institutions, at a time when rates of COVID-19 are surging again in the United States, including in Illinois. State public health officials on Wednesday warned of a “new wave” of coronavirus cases and attributed an additional 69 deaths to COVID-19 — the most in a single day since June 17.

From Jan. 26 through Oct. 3, the CDC study found, the coronavirus caused nearly 300,000 deaths in the United States. That number includes not only deaths directly caused by the virus, but also about 100,000 indirectly related.

The CDC study attempted to count “excess mortality” in the United States, which is the total number of lives lost over and above historically expected levels — normal circumstances. By doing so, the CDC effectively ruled out people who would have died anyway. There would have been no big jump in the total numbers of deaths this year, compared to same period last year, had doctors and coroners just been reclassifying tens of thousands of “normal” deaths as being due to COVID-19.

Using this approach, the CDC study counted not only deaths officially attributed to the coronavirus, but also deaths that were misclassified or overlooked altogether. Many of the deaths likely were of people who put off going to the hospital for fear of contracting the virus, or who received poorer medical care because of the pandemic’s crunch on the health care system.

The CDC study confirms one widely accepted fact, that the coronavirus has been particularly lethal for people of color. Hispanics experienced an excess mortality rate of 54%, while Black people saw a 33% increase, but the increase for white people was just 12%.

Less expected, the study also found that the virus is not as benign for younger Americans as generally believed. While the coronavirus has mostly killed older Americans, the increase in excess deaths was highest — 26.5% — among Americans ages 25 to 44.

Hard facts such as these should motivate all of us to double down on the basics of protection against the virus — wearing face masks, respecting social distancing and avoiding crowds. They should encourage us, here in Illinois, to support Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s renewal this week of COVID-19 restrictions in parts of the state, including Chicago’s south and west suburbs, that have seen rising positive testing rates.

The sad reality, though, as shown in a new national poll, is that Americans have lost trust “across the board” in the people and institutions informing them about the coronavirus — and that includes the CDC.

Trump is trusted by the American people the very least — just 16% — according to the poll by the Associated Press and others. But even the CDC, after months of being bashed and politically pressured by the president, is rated as highly trusted by only 36% of Americans.

Among Trump’s many deplorable acts, that may be among his most damaging — sowing unwarranted doubt in the integrity of the institutions, such as the CDC, that our nation must depend on most in times of crisis.

But there’s no denying the simple math of the CDC’s study. This pandemic kills.

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