This deep into the regular season, there’s enough evidence to know who’s serious about contending for a championship.
The Ravens are the undisputed favorite. They have allowed the fewest points and scored the second-most. They won decisively against the Lions, 49ers and Dolphins, and their three losses — all to decent teams — came by a total of 12 points. And quarterback Lamar Jackson is closing in on his second MVP, which would make him only the 11th multiple-time winner.
The 49ers are favored to face them in the Super Bowl and have dominated — other than losing by 14 points at home to the Ravens. They have allowed the second-fewest points and scored the fourth-most. They also clobbered the Cowboys and Eagles by a total of 55 points.
Then there’s a group of six teams with legitimate hope of upsetting them: the Dolphins, Cowboys, Eagles, Lions, Bills and Chiefs.
The teams that have done the best in top-eight matchups are the Eagles (4-2) and Bills (3-1), but both have red flags. The Bills, who are fourth in the league in point differential at plus-133, still might miss the playoffs. The Eagles got blown out by the 49ers and Cowboys last month and lost at home Sunday to the Cardinals.
The knock on the Dolphins is that they can’t beat good teams, and that mostly has been true. They beat the Cowboys at home on a last-second field goal but are 0-4 otherwise against top-eight teams and will fumble away the AFC East if they lose Sunday to the Bills.
The Chiefs are always a threat if they have Patrick Mahomes, so pencil them into this conversation for another decade. He’s having his worst season, but he never can be disregarded. And their defense is elite. They’re 1-3 against the best teams, but their losses to the Lions (one point), Eagles (four) and Bills (three) were tight.
Many will discount the Cowboys and Lions because of their histories. The Lions have been laughable losers for decades, and the Cowboys are never as good as they think they are. There’s concern, too, about the Cowboys going 2-4 and Lions going 1-2 against top competition. It’s likely both will open the playoffs at home, but it’s hard to see them winning more than one game each.
• There are huge spoiler opportunities this week, highlighted by the Bears’ chance to keep the archrival Packers out of the playoffs. The Titans could drop the Jaguars from the playoff field, and the Cardinals could block the Seahawks.
• Steelers coach Mike Tomlin never has had a losing season in 17 years on the job. He has managed to go 18-15 with Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph at quarterback the last two seasons.
• The Jets traded for future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers but instead have gotten the worst quarterback play in the NFL because of his injury in the opener. With no viable backup, they’ve wasted one of the strongest defenses in the league.
• The Chiefs likely will finish out of the top 10 in scoring for the first time in Mahomes’ career. And while there are multiple factors, it’s interesting that their struggles coincide with former Bears coach Matt Nagy stepping in as offensive coordinator.
Here are the Week 18 power rankings:
1. Ravens (13-3)
They’ve crushed a bunch of good teams and are the clear championship favorite.
2. 49ers (12-4)
The 49ers have won 7 of 8 and look ready for the playoffs.
3. Dolphins (11-5)
Losing to the Ravens by 37 is alarming this late in the season.
4. Cowboys (11-5)
For all the doubters, the Cowboys are on the cusp of winning the NFC East.
5. Eagles (11-5)
Their roster is loaded, but this team hasn’t seemed quite right all season.
6. Lions (11-5)
Nearly beating the Cowboys on the road is a good sign for the Lions.
7. Bills (10-6)
They’d clinch the AFC East by beating the Dolphins, whom they hammered in Week 4.
8. Chiefs (10-6)
The only time they looked dominant this season was against the Bears.
9. Browns (11-5)
They’re 4-1 since turning to 38-year-old Joe Flacco at quarterback.
10. Texans (9-7)
With Stroud back, they should make the playoffs and could win a game.
11. Rams (9-7)
They have the fifth-best point differential in the NFC at plus-26.
12. Jaguars (9-7)
The Jaguars have struggled since their 6-3 start and still haven’t clinched a playoff berth.
13. Steelers (9-7)
They somehow keep playing just well enough to stay in the playoff hunt.
14. Buccaneers (8-8)
They blew a chance to clinch the division by playing terribly against the Saints.
15. Colts (9-7)
They’ll jump from four wins to nine or 10 — with QB Anthony Richardson on IR.
16. Packers (8-8)
Are the Packers good or not? The Bears will get the answer Sunday.
17. Saints (8-8)
They’re sixth in points allowed and third in opponent passer rating.
18. Seahawks (8-8)
Other than Virginia McCaskey, nobody is rooting harder for the Bears this week.
19. Bengals (8-8)
They made a nice run despite Joe Burrow’s injury, but fell short of the playoffs.
20. Broncos (8-8)
They’re on track to pick 14th, making it tough to solve their QB problem.
21. Bears (7-9)
The highest they’ve been ranked; two spots ahead of where they were after the preseason.
22. Vikings (7-9)
They still have a wacky path to the playoffs if they beat the Lions.
23. Raiders (7-9)
Their 3-0 home loss to the Vikings in Week 14 was a brutal blow.
24. Falcons (7-9)
The Falcons gave up nearly double their season average in points to the Bears.
25. Titans (5-11)
The Titans are bad, but certainly have the potential to spoil the Jaguars’ season.
26. Jets (6-10)
To their credit, the Jets were a pain to play all season.
27. Chargers (5-11)
They’ve lost four in a row by a total of 68 points.
28. Cardinals (4-12)
Their four wins came against opponents with a combined record of 38-26. Weird.
29. Giants (5-11)
Their great hope to turn this mess around next season? Daniel Jones. Yikes.
30. Patriots (4-12)
Their most losses in a season during the Brady years was seven in 2002.
31. Commanders (4-12)
They looked ready to tank at the trade deadline and they’ve done it well.
32. Panthers (2-14)
They’ve scored 10 points or fewer six times this season.
