The Bears are tied for the third-easiest schedule in the NFL this season — based on their opponents’ 2023 records (135-154, .467). Even by expectations — their opponents’ 2024 season Vegas win totals — their schedule is tied for the sixth-easiest (8.21 wins).
That statistic, though, has not been very predictive. The five teams with the easiest schedules heading into the 2023 season went a combined 41-44 (.482) in the regular season, with four of them missing the playoffs.
But the lone team in that group that made the playoffs is the one that continually breathes life into the Bears’ hopes as a potential Cinderella in 2024 — the Houston Texans, who went from 3-13-1 in 2022 to 10-7 with a playoff victory in 2023 under first-year coach DeMeco Ryans.
The Texans continue to be a legitimate comp that fuels hope for the Bears in 2024. With a roster no better than what the Bears have today — worse actually, with the exception of Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil — the Texans parlayed a rookie quarterback (No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud), a first-time offensive coordinator (Bobby Slowik) and the third-easiest schedule in the NFL into a worst-to-first leap in the AFC South.
It remains to be seen if the Bears can make that same jump. But the 2024 schedule-maker — on paper, anyway — has given Matt Eberflus’ team a chance to get its feet on the ground early and establish itself before a rugged finish in the second half of the season.
They open with the rebuilding Titans under rookie coach Brian Callahan at Soldier Field before winnable road games against the Texans and Colts. They play the Rams and Panthers at home before facing the Jaguars in London (a Bears “home” game).
After a Week 7 bye, the Bears have road games against the Commanders and Cardinals and a home game against the rebuilding Patriots. Of those first nine games, only the Texans and Rams made the playoffs last season.
Those final eight games could be a gantlet — facing the Packers and Lions home-and-away (including a Thanksgiving Day game at Ford Field), plus a road game against the 49ers.
But by then — in theory, anyway — the Bears, first-year offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams should be much better established with a half-season or more of experience together. That gantlet would likely be much more daunting in September and October.
Every game in the NFL is a big one, as coaches always say. But with a developing team that has expectations of a making a Texans-like jump, here are five games that could particularly be a barometer of how the 2024 Bears ultimately will be defined:
Week 2, at Texans (7:20 p.m., NBC-5)
The self-confident Williams already established a desire to not only match existing standards, but exceed them. This is an early opportunity for a big first step toward that — against Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud, whose impressive rookie season fueled the Texans rapid rise from 3-13-1 to 10-7 and the playoffs last season.
If the Bears are going to be this year’s Texans, beating the Texans — who will be playing their home opener — would make a strong statement.
Week 11, vs. Packers (noon, Fox-32)
If this is the dawn of a new era for the Bears, there’s no better opponent to prove it against than the Packers, who have beaten the Bears 10 consecutive times and 25 of the last 29 times since 2009.
But more than just beating the Packers, this is an opportunity for the Bears to do it with the best quarterback on the field. Jordan Love continued Brett Favre’s and Aaron Rodgers’ mastery over the Bears last year — throwing five touchdown passes and no interceptions with passer ratings of 123.2 and 128.6 in victories to open and close the season. He’s good and should get better, but the Bears still have hopes of a trump card in Williams. By Week 11, he’ll have had ample opportunity to be prepared for this moment.
Week 13, at Lions on Thanksgiving Day
In a 7-10 rebuilding season, two of the Bears’ most encouraging performances came against Dan Campbell’s upstart Lions — a 31-26 loss at Ford Field when the Lions scored 17 points in the final three minutes to win; and a 28-13 victory at Soldier Field. The Bears stifled Jared Goff in those games (five interceptions, two of his three lowest passer ratings of the season — 68.3, 54.6), providing more hope that a player like Williams can slingshot the Bears past the improving Lions.
Traveling on a short week and playing on Thanksgiving is not ideal. But the Lions have lost seven straight games on Thanksgiving, including three to the Bears — in 2021 (16-14), 2019 (24-20) and 2018 (23-16). The Bears were 2-0 on short-week Thursday games last season, beating the Commanders 40-20 at FedEx Field and the Panthers 16-13 at Soldier Field.
Week 14, at 49ers (3:25 p.m., Fox-32)
Though this is seen as a stepping-stone season for the Bears, they could be ready to measure up against the best by Week 14 and see just how close they are to contending for a Super Bowl.
The 49ers under Kyle Shanahan are the class of the NFC, with three consecutive NFC Championship Game appearances and a Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs last year. Pending injuries, they look like they’ll be just as good this season.
There’s no telling what either team will look like in early December. But the Bears will be playing on nine days rest after playing the Lions on Thursday Night Football in Week 13.
Week 18, at Packers (time, network TBA)
Even if this game doesn’t have playoff implications, beating the Packers at Lambeau Field in the final week of the regular season almost certainly will be important for the Bears at the end of their first season with Williams and Waldron — especially at the end of what looks like a difficult second half of the season. It might be a victory for the Bears if Williams is making his 17th start. No Bears quarterback has started every game of the season since Jay Cutler in 2009.
