March Madness: An NCAA Tournament first-weekend preview

College basketball’s National Invitational Tournament is in the same big, sad boat as all the bowl games that don’t impact the College Football Playoff. As harsh as it sounds, it’s just the way things have become: If it’s not about the national championship, it no longer matters that much.

A cavalcade of major programs — Indiana, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, St. John’s, Memphis, Ole Miss, Oklahoma — have turned down chances to play in this year’s NIT, and the temptation is to regard them as brats and babies. But they’ve all decided getting a jump on roster building for next season is more important, which, in 2024, it is.

Meanwhile, any of those programs would kill to be in the shoes of the one that has become most infamous for falling short in the NCAA Tournament: Purdue.

The Boilermakers wouldn’t know the way to the Final Four if there was nothing but a straight railroad track and a black-and-gold locomotive pointed in the right direction. Hall of Fame coach Gene Keady never got them there. Future Hall of Famer Matt Painter hasn’t, either. Still, the Boilers — the No. 1 seed in the Midwest region — always give themselves a chance. They’ve been a top-four seed in seven straight tournaments.

“Anybody can have a good team,” Painter said, “but can you have a good program? …

“We’ve worked very hard and done the right things in our program. All you try to do is fight to get it in the best position possible.”

They’ve never been in a better position on Painter’s — or Keady’s — watch. Center Zach Edey was more dominant as a second-time national player of the year. In point guard Braden Smith, he has a first-team all-Big Ten running mate. Transfer Lance Jones (Evanston) brought defense and attitude to the equation.

Still: Can Purdue finally come through? Everyone is wondering.

QUESTIONS NO. 1

We’ve discussed Purdue. As for the other No. 1 seeds:

It’s UConn, but is it UConn? Technically, the Huskies are trying to win it all back-to-back — which has happened only twice since John Wooden’s UCLA dynasty — but this is a vastly different team than last year’s. Is that good or bad? Watch and find out; just understand that the headliners last March were Jordan Hawkins, Adama Sanogo and Andre Jackson, and they’ve left the building.

Does Houston have a problem? The worry — maybe the only one — is always about an offensive clunker. In 2022, the Cougars scored 44 points in the Elite Eight. Last year, they couldn’t buy a three-pointer in the Sweet 16. Last weekend, they scored 41 in a Big 12 title-game blowout loss. Great team, but be wary.

Have you met North Carolina’s friends? The ACC is far from what it used to be. This season, it ranked behind the Mountain West in conference RPI. The Tar Heels have a great player in RJ Davis, but they’re one of the softest 1s we’ve seen.

COACHES IN NEED OF A RUN

Painter isn’t the only one.

Rick Barnes, Tennessee: At tournament time, no one does less with more. Barnes’ teams are 3-15 against the spread in their last 18 NCAA games.

John Calipari, Kentucky: His first three finishes, in order, with the Wildcats: Elite Eight, Final Four and — in 2012 — national champ. But no one ever calls this the top program in America anymore.

Brad Underwood, Illinois: When it comes to getting past the first weekend, he is 0-for-3 at Illinois and 0-for-7 for his career.

FIVE TRENDS TO KEEP IN MIND

If you’re still noodling around with your bracket, this might help.

1. As many bracket players have figured out, No. 12 seeds are promising upset picks. They’ve won about 35% of first-round games since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

2. In 3-vs.-14 games, the favorites are batting .855. There has been only one of these upsets since 2016.

3. Clearly, 8s are no better than 9s. If they were, 8s wouldn’t be 74-78 in the first round.

4. On average — not precisely, but close enough — two double-digit seeds reach the Sweet 16. Only one did in 2023, but four did in 2022 (and two of them reached the Elite Eight).

5. Just saying, 25 of the last 39 champs have been 1 seeds. It’s fun to pick a non-1, but lots of luck winning a pool that way.

A FIRST FOUR

If I could watch only four first-round games — after Illinois’ and Northwestern’s, that is — it would be these. Maybe.

West: 8 Mississippi State (+1½) vs. 9 Michigan State (11:15 a.m. Thursday, CBS): It’s the very first game of Round 1, and it should be a banger. The winner could go on a real run.

Midwest: 4 Kansas (-7½) vs. 13 Samford (8:55 p.m. Thursday, TBS): The preseason No. 1 Jayhawks have been deeply disappointing, but they get to hit the reset button and, well, there’s crazy pressure on them all over again.

East: 5 San Diego State (-6½) vs. 12 UAB (12:45 p.m. Friday, TNT): Out of all teams in the field, the Aztecs have one of the worst records against the spread and the Blazers have one of the best. Do with that knowledge what you will.

South: 5 Wisconsin (-5½) vs. 12 James Madison (8:40 p.m. Friday, CBS): When the Dukes won at Michigan State to start the season, everybody flipped out. Yeah, well, they’re 31-3 now, and haven’t lost a game since January. Look out.